Since 2013, Kentucky Derby contenders are largely determined by a point system based on each horse's performance (if they come first, second, third, or fourth) in any of 34 races considered to be Kentucky Derby prep races. The so-called Road to the Derby began on September 12th with the 1 1/16th mile Iroquois Stakes and will end this Saturday with both the 1 1/8th mile Arkansas Derby and the 1 1/16th mile Coolmore Lexington Stakes. The races range in point distribution from 10-4-2-1 to 100-40-20-10.
The Kentucky Derby website keeps a leaderboard based on the given rankings, but I decided to make my own, more specific leaderboard (click to download .xslx file).
0 Comments
Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) Considering that the last two runnings of the Santa Anita Derby brought us two prominent Kentucky Derby finishers: Dortmund (third place) last year and California Chrome (won the Derby and Preakness) in 2014. So for me, deciding between the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby wasn't really difficult. Lately, this has been the race that has brought us some really strong contenders. Today, I think those strong contenders are Mor Spirit (4), Danzing Candy (3), and Exaggerator (2). Mor Spirit and Exaggerator are two of the strongest contenders today who have also raced on sloppy or muddy tracks and still come in the muddy. With today's track fixing to be pretty sloppy, I think this is especially relevant. I placed wild card show bets on Diplodocus (9) and Smokey Image (5). I'm somewhat forgiving Diplodocus for his disappointing 5th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby, and I think that Smokey Image could press Danzing Moon enough to finish in the money. Maybe my bets today will bite me in the butt shortly, but I feel pretty confident about the 4-3-2 combo. None of the other horses really stood out to me, but you can read my detailed analysis in the attached file. If you're trying to wager with TwinspiresTV, it's not working for me either right now. You're not alone! With 15 minutes to post, did you bet on anyone in this field? Who and why? Updated results when they happen! ~Gallant Vixen
Race Results Gun Runner took the challenge of an additional sixteenth of a mile more than his previous races completely in stride, winning today's Louisiana Derby by several lengths over second place finisher Tom's Ready. In a photo finish for third, Dazzling Gem beat out Mo Tom seemingly by a nose. I'm back! With about 10 minutes to post, a quick run down through my bets for today's Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Win bets: Forevamo (11), Battery (3) Place bets: Gun Runner (1), Greenpointcrusader (2) Show bets: Dazzling Gem (9), Candy My Boy (5) Even though Forevamo didn't win the Risen Star, he came pretty close, and I think that his overall history make this more of a possibility for him. Battery has actually won at this distance recently, which is something that no one else on the field can say. Gun Runner of course gets a bet for winning the Risen Stakes, which was on the same track. Greenpointcrusader seems like a true crusader, and ran second to my favorite Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. Dazzling Gem has a great pedigree but also is undefeated right now and seems determined, plus has a good build with great hindquarters, which to me bodes well for increased distance and endurance. Finally, Candy My Boy is clearly a speed horse but he has successfully raced against Forevamo and put in a good bid in the Risen Star, so he got a $1 wild card show bet. For more detailed reasoning regarding the contenders' race records, pedigrees, and conformation, check out the downloadable file linked at the end of this post. As many of today's contenders are Risen Star Stakes 2016 alumni, I've attached a replay of that race below for your convenience!
Race Results Today was a day for the favorites and also for yet another one of Tapit's progeny. That is to say that early rumored favorite, Frank Conversation, came through with the win in the El Camino. Tapit son Tusk came second, not too far off the leader, and second favorite Kasseopia came third. I was sort of disappointed by Diplodocus today- I'm not really sure what happened with him, but it looks like he may have gotten too bunched in to ever make a successful move. Lessons Learned In a perfect world, once I would realize what was working for me, I would just keep doing that forever and ever; we do not live in that world. Despite my best efforts, I was researching the contenders in this race down the wire, and making my bets as the horses were mere feet from the starting gate. While my predictions for the race worked out, I didn't leave myself enough time to calculate what the most efficient bets would be. Did I lose money? Yes, by a little. $2.20 is like a small iced coffee at Dunkin Donuts, which isn't nothing. One of the things I regret with my bets today is the last minute bet I placed on Algenon. In my notes, I mentioned that his 3rd place finish in the California Derby after having weakened in the final furlong "does not bode well for a good performance today." Despite that, a brief glance at him before the post parade made me decide to bet on him. That was me trying to go with my gut, thinking about how good I had felt when I saw Collected in the Sham Stakes post parade. But Collected didn't win the Sham Stakes simply because he was impressive looking, he won because he had a good race record and had what it took to best the rest. Once again, I'm struck by how difficult it can be to draw the line between a purely logical and objective approach to handicapping and the subjective, intuitive aspect that definitely has some place in these decisions.
Going forward, I'm going to try and be more resolute in trying to finish handicapping sooner before post and giving myself enough time to do calculations. Today when asked how much I stood to win on the bets I had place, I didn't know the answer. As much as I don't like math, I'm going to need to start doing it before placing my bets or otherwise I stand to lose more than just a small iced coffee if things go south. At the same time, I still want the emphasis of my bets to be on who I think has the best chance of winning, not just who could make me the most money. Although I'm not completely dissatisfied with today's bets, I definitely feel like I could have done much better. That said, the real benefit to handicapping these Derby prep races is that I'm familiarizing myself with the likely Triple Crown race competitors for later in the year. Haha, or at least this is what I tell myself when I spend several hours on a weekend on Equibase and Pedigree Query running names and numbers. Who did you think was going to come out on top in today's El Camino? Do you place more of an emphasis on logic and results or intuition when betting? How has this worked out for you? Stay warm, folks! ~Gallant Vixen Sometimes when handicapping you get a "deep" field- this means that the horses are all pretty talented and rather evenly matched. The field for today's race, however, was on the shallow side. I'm grateful for that, since having to decide who to bet on between 14 equally qualified horses would have been a disaster for me. And in an effort to try and actually turn a profit, having less horses to choose from was convenient. Although I anticipate that Kasseopia (2) will place or show, his odds are too good to really make money from. So while I think he could pull it off, my betting does not reflect that. Otherwise, I really like Diplodocus (10) and Frank Conversation (12) to come somewhere in the money. Diplodocus has actually won at 1 1/8th mile before, and Frank Conversation has proven himself recently at 1 1/16th mile on this very track in the California Derby. I placed show bets on Marqula (7) and Tusk (8) due to their experiences either with the track (Marqula) or similar distances (Tusk), plus a wild card show bet on Algenon (9) because I liked the way he looked before rider's up, and since he had come 3rd in the California Derby.
As I'm beginning to research and handicap tomorrow's El Camino Real Derby, I finally got the chance to watch amazing Mohaymen's win in the January 30 Holy Bull. My original plan was to handicap it since the field was projected to be pretty small, but unfortunately I missed it. Buuut, let's just take a moment to admire this performance: So in case you missed that, Junior Alvarado never even needed to touch his crop. You get the sense that for Mohaymen, this was essentially a more competitive workout. Watching this race is reminiscent of American Pharoah's run in the 2015 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, with the obvious differences being the much larger margin Pharoah won by and the fact that he held the lead the whole time. But going into the Derby, whether Pharoah would be able to handle a duel with Dortmund, another standard frontrunner, for the lead was a pressing question. Here, we know that Mohaymen can handle starting out toward the back of the pack, fight his way to the lead with hardly any urging, and then romp away home.
At four for four, Mohaymen certainly appears to be living up to his name, Arabic for "dominant." Plus, he seems to be on the track to live up to his $2.2 million purchase price at the 2014 Keeneland September sale, with over half a million in race earnings already. Once again, very much looking forward to what's next for this boy! ~Gallant Vixen Sham Stakes Results Without his rival from the DeMille Stakes, Collected breezed through the finish at the Sham Stakes today. Let's Meet in Rio, with a fantastic closing drive, was a cool second. And Laoban, once again eating Let's Meet in Rio's dirt, came third. Found Money, who had stayed up near the pace through the majority of the race, ended up coming fourth. A replay of the race is posted at the end of this post. As I was watching the post parade, I felt good about Collected. If you read my detailed evaluation of the contenders (linked for download in my last post), you know that I was unable to find any pictures of Collected. In fact, the above picture is the closest I could get to one of him now. So to see him trotting on the track before reaching the gate and seeing how tall yet balanced he is, it was a relief. I almost went back and spent the extra $2 to place a win bet on him, which brings me to... Lessons Learned I broke even!!! Haha, all my learning seems to have led to this moment, where I didn't lose any money at all. Seriously though, I don't have many gripes with the bets I placed today. My only regret is that I didn't place the win bet on Collected, but on the other hand, I was still able to cash in on the place and show bets I had on him. I'm glad I went with my gut for Let's Meet in Rio and Laoban. Today's results tell me that I've gotten comfortable and confident in my handicapping. They're also evidence that solid preparation is so important. My next step is going to be to try and move from simply breaking even or "winning back more than I lose," to actually turning somewhat of a profit. How? Calculating what it would take, based on the odds, to come out on top for each race. This might mean I put more money on the horses I feel more sure of, or possibly return to exacta boxing... But I'd rather start by just putting a few extra bucks on the horses that seem to have the best chance at winning, placing, or showing. As I know from experience, exacta and trifecta boxing is a fickle, fickle game. Speaking of fickle games: before today's results were made official, there was a steward's inquiry on Let's Meet in Rio, Laoban, and Found Money. Luckily, everything turned out good and clean with no one getting disqualified. But for those few minutes where they were investigating the race replay to make sure none of the rules had been violated, I was reminded of yet another reason why there's nothing sure about handicapping. I could have handicapped this race perfectly, I could have been set up for a huge windfall, but all it would take to kill that would be one rule violation on the track, and that bet is a waste. That's why, even when I do have more money available to put on the line, I still keep everything under a set amount. I'd rather be safe and win less money than lose a lot on a mere racetrack technicality. What did you think of the Sham Stakes? Who from this race are you looking forward to seeing more from? Isn't it kind of weird that Penny Chenery was in the winner's circle in a race named after Secretariat's biggest rival? (Just kidding with that last one. I love Penny Chenery and am always glad to see her at events like this.) ~Gallant Vixen I'm actually making good on my resolution to prepare in advance, so today I'm bringing you my predictions over an hour before post! The Sham Stakes, named after one of Secretariat's most notorious colleagues, is one mile on the dirt and will give the first three finishers a nice dash of Kentucky Derby points. When I first began handicapping this after the post positions were released on Wednesday, Dressed in Hermes was my clear favorite. He's won at one mile twice before, both times on the turf, and both times over other horses racing today. Unfortunately, he was scratched earlier today. With the odds for today's race fairly close (the worst odds today are just 15-1), handicapping in Dressed in Hermes' absence was somewhat tricky. However, since several of these horses have been in the same races, I used that to develop a hierarchy of sorts to guide me. As always, my detailed analysis is linked below. My focus today is going to be on I'malreadythere, Let's Meet in Rio, and Collected. Those three, I think, have the best chance of either winning or placing. Of course, all three can't win or place, so I'll be placing show bets on them as well. I'm not 100% sold on Collected to win, however, so just a place/show on him. My wild card bets are going to be Found Money, Laoban, and Rare Candy. I'm not going to put anything on Semper Fortis and Sorryaboutnothing. What I like about...
~Gallant Vixen
UPDATE: Just placed my bets now. For some reason, the lowest bet available was $2. Due to limited funds (I don't like to ever drain my account out completely), I could only place win/place bets on Let's Meet in Rio and I'malreadythere. $18 is a lot more than I've bet recently but it's all mostly rolled over in my account for what I've won back in the last several months. Here's to hoping I get most of it back today too!
|
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
Categories
All
|