Why consider pedigrees?Analyzing pedigrees can be helpful in guessing at a horse's general genetic makeup, as well as estimating what he might be capable of or prefer on the track. Although this factor is arguably of lesser importance than conformation and certainly race records, that's not to say that it's entirely useless when evaluating the horses on a given card. Especially early on in a colt or filly's career, pedigrees can operate as a window into possible future conformation, attitude, and achievements.
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Influential horses
There are some horses, due either to their accomplishments on the track or in the breeding shed, that stand out to me on a pedigree.
The following horses are just a few examples, so if you're ever in doubt, either consult a list like this, or do some research.
The following horses are just a few examples, so if you're ever in doubt, either consult a list like this, or do some research.
A.P. Indy
Seeing A.P. Indy in a horse's pedigree, especially on the dam's side (scroll down for more on this), is often a good sign. Not only was Indy prolific as a stud, he also has a great race record for graded stakes. Specifically, he won the Santa Anita Derby, the Belmont Stakes, and the Breeders' Cup Classic. In 1992, he was named both the Eclipse Three-Year-Old of the Year in 1992 and Horse of the Year. Furthermore, A.P. Indy's pedigree itself reads like a thoroughbred honor roll of sorts. His sire is Seattle Slew and his dam is Weekend Surprise, by Secretariat and out of Lassie Dear. Two Triple Crown winners for the price of one, essentially! Not featured in his pedigree is Mr. Prospector, which means that his progeny tend not to be too inbred to Mr. P.
Seeing A.P. Indy in a horse's pedigree, especially on the dam's side (scroll down for more on this), is often a good sign. Not only was Indy prolific as a stud, he also has a great race record for graded stakes. Specifically, he won the Santa Anita Derby, the Belmont Stakes, and the Breeders' Cup Classic. In 1992, he was named both the Eclipse Three-Year-Old of the Year in 1992 and Horse of the Year. Furthermore, A.P. Indy's pedigree itself reads like a thoroughbred honor roll of sorts. His sire is Seattle Slew and his dam is Weekend Surprise, by Secretariat and out of Lassie Dear. Two Triple Crown winners for the price of one, essentially! Not featured in his pedigree is Mr. Prospector, which means that his progeny tend not to be too inbred to Mr. P.
Storm Cat
Like A.P. Indy, Storm Cat is also a grandson of Secretariat on his dam's side. Northern Dancer, winner of the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, was his sire's sire. Something I particularly like about Storm Cat's pedigree is the variation in the country of origin of his ancestors. Due to his sire, the bulk of them are Canadian, but he also has a good amount of horses from Great Britain and France in there, as well as a few from Argentina (scroll down for why this is important to me). With a little over $570,000 in racing earnings, Storm Cat did okay for himself on the track, but his stud fees eventually climbed to $500,000. As of his death in April 2013, his progeny had amassed over $128 million in earnings, so I'd say it was probably worth it. Again like A.P. Indy, Storm Cat also doesn't have Mr. Prospector in his pedigree.
Like A.P. Indy, Storm Cat is also a grandson of Secretariat on his dam's side. Northern Dancer, winner of the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, was his sire's sire. Something I particularly like about Storm Cat's pedigree is the variation in the country of origin of his ancestors. Due to his sire, the bulk of them are Canadian, but he also has a good amount of horses from Great Britain and France in there, as well as a few from Argentina (scroll down for why this is important to me). With a little over $570,000 in racing earnings, Storm Cat did okay for himself on the track, but his stud fees eventually climbed to $500,000. As of his death in April 2013, his progeny had amassed over $128 million in earnings, so I'd say it was probably worth it. Again like A.P. Indy, Storm Cat also doesn't have Mr. Prospector in his pedigree.
Danzig
A son of Northern Dancer, Danzig's race record doesn't seem especially impressive from first glance. He broke his maiden on his first try, and then went on to win two allowance races before retiring due to knee problems*. His dam, Pas De Nom (French for "no name"), also isn't immediately striking, but brings to the proverbial pedigree table a load of British and French stock (on top of that which Northern Dancer brings), as well as a line back to War Admiral, 1937 Triple Crown winner and son of Man O' War. The combination of Northern Dancer and Pas De Nom proved very successful for Danzig as a sire: at his death in 2006, he had sired 188 stakes winners, 107 graded stakes winners, and many of those horses went on to great success in the breeding shed themselves.
*If you look at the above picture, you can see that Danzig is a little buck-kneed. This would have placed a lot of downward pressure on his knees while racing, which is likely what led to his early retirement. Keep in mind that Danzig could very well be passing this onto his progeny- always still evaluate an individual horse's conformation, regardless of how star-studded the pedigree.
A son of Northern Dancer, Danzig's race record doesn't seem especially impressive from first glance. He broke his maiden on his first try, and then went on to win two allowance races before retiring due to knee problems*. His dam, Pas De Nom (French for "no name"), also isn't immediately striking, but brings to the proverbial pedigree table a load of British and French stock (on top of that which Northern Dancer brings), as well as a line back to War Admiral, 1937 Triple Crown winner and son of Man O' War. The combination of Northern Dancer and Pas De Nom proved very successful for Danzig as a sire: at his death in 2006, he had sired 188 stakes winners, 107 graded stakes winners, and many of those horses went on to great success in the breeding shed themselves.
*If you look at the above picture, you can see that Danzig is a little buck-kneed. This would have placed a lot of downward pressure on his knees while racing, which is likely what led to his early retirement. Keep in mind that Danzig could very well be passing this onto his progeny- always still evaluate an individual horse's conformation, regardless of how star-studded the pedigree.
Complementary Sire and Dam Pedigrees
Because sires like A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Danzig- among many others- were so influential, they are also very prevalent in pedigrees. This means you see a lot of the same ancestors in a given pedigree. Looking all the way back, all Thoroughbreds today can trace their ancestry back to just three stallions: the Godolphin Arabian, the Byerley Turk, and the Darley Arabian. In racing, a certain amount of the expected "inbreeding" is considered good. Why? I'll let the genealogically minded folks from The Genealogical World of Phylogenetic Networks explain:
"In suitable doses this is seen as a Good Thing, because it can produce the homozygous appearance of desirable racing characteristics. However, inbreeding should not be too recent. For example, if we look at the list of the Blood-Horse Top 100 Thoroughbreds of the 20th Century then none of them have inbreeding in the previous generation and only one has inbreeding in the one before that. However, 54% of the horses have inbreeding in the fourth ancestral generation, and 18% in each of the third and fifth generations. Only 9 horses had no inbreeding during the five previous generations."
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What I like to see when I look at a pedigree, ideally, is that there are a couple good common ancestors and that they complement each other. For example, maybe the horse has Northern Dancer three back on both his sire and dam's side, like this. Another great thing about Pedigree Query is how they label common ancestors, which makes it pretty easy to see when a horse has a lot. Toast of New York, winner of the 2014 UAE Derby and second place in both the Breeders' Cup Classic and Pacific Classic, has a lot of Northern Dancer in his pedigree, which means he has even more Native Dancer. Obviously, it hasn't inhibited him, but I prefer to see pedigrees like this one.
I also like to see the most influential horses on the dam's side. This has to do with the so-called X-factor, although I don't consider this as much as other handicappers might. To put it simply, horses like Northern Dancer, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and War Admiral were found on their death to have had hearts significantly larger than those of the average Thoroughbred. Having a large heart is the ultimate racing boon: the heart can re-oxygenate and pump more blood with each beat, meaning horses tend to have more stamina. That said, a horse with the "X-factor" could still be a lousy runner or rarely win- there are numerous other factors at play. Furthermore, genetic mutation is far from an exact science. You can look into a horse's pedigree and surmise that since they have A.P. Indy and Northern Dancer on their dam's side, that they have the X-factor, but we won't truly know until someone autopsies that horse. In my opinion, though, it's more likely that a horse with those sires on their dam's line are successful.
I also like to see the most influential horses on the dam's side. This has to do with the so-called X-factor, although I don't consider this as much as other handicappers might. To put it simply, horses like Northern Dancer, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and War Admiral were found on their death to have had hearts significantly larger than those of the average Thoroughbred. Having a large heart is the ultimate racing boon: the heart can re-oxygenate and pump more blood with each beat, meaning horses tend to have more stamina. That said, a horse with the "X-factor" could still be a lousy runner or rarely win- there are numerous other factors at play. Furthermore, genetic mutation is far from an exact science. You can look into a horse's pedigree and surmise that since they have A.P. Indy and Northern Dancer on their dam's side, that they have the X-factor, but we won't truly know until someone autopsies that horse. In my opinion, though, it's more likely that a horse with those sires on their dam's line are successful.
Diversity of Ancestry
As mentioned above, thoroughbreds have a history of inbreeding. In moderation and fairly far removed, this is fine. While a bit of inbreeding to great horses is seen as a way to increase positive homozygous characteristics, it also can result in the spread of conformation faults and defects. "Outcrossing" is the reverse of inbreeding- outside lines are crossed in to result in progeny that is ideally the best of both worlds, so to speak. Anne Peters, of the Pedigree Post, explains this well:
"When crossed with harmonious outside lines that need their strengths, or add strengths where there are weaknesses, miracles can, and do happen. These outcrosses, with one or both parents being inbred (but to different strains) often result in a condition known as "heterosis" or hybrid vigor. Heterosis is just the opposite of inbreeding depression, since it tends to produce an individual that is bigger and stronger than either parent. This is often the formula for producing superior performance horses."
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Outcrossing is what I like to see in a pedigree, and essentially what I mentioned in my discussion regarding "complementary sire and dam pedigrees." However, I also look for a diversity in the national origin of ancestry too. The majority of racetracks in England, Ireland, and France are turf. Due to the rougher nature of the surface, turf racing even at shorter distances requires contenders to have a lot of stamina. So when I see that a horse has a lot of international diversity in the pedigree, especially from the countries that are turf-loving, it leads me to believe that the horses that have been outcrossed in are strong and relatively energetic, with conformation suited to turf (which usually transitions just fine to dirt in most instances).