I'm baaaack, and just in time for the 88th running of the Whitney Stakes! The last time I covered a Saratoga race was when American Pharoah ran in the Travers last August and the "Graveyard of Champions" got another tombstone. Also harkening back to the American Pharoah days is Whitney contender Effinex, who you may best remember as being the only horse during the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic to really ever press Pharoah. With just over an hour to post, my evaluation of the field and predictions for the race are after the jump!
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Derby Rundown It's hard to believe that it's already been two weeks since the running of the Derby! In case you've forgotten, Nyquist, lived up to his status as a favorite and sailed to victory by a healthy length and a quarter. Behind him was Exaggerator, with over three lengths behind him to third place finisher Gun Runner, who himself was just a head ahead of Mohaymen. And finally, my long shot Suddenbreakingnews was just a nose behind Mohaymen, having closed insanely from almost last place to fifth! Preakness Predictions
In brief: I think Nyquist can pull this off, but Exaggerator is definitely one to watch out for. I'm also betting on Cherry Wine to place or show, and Stradivari for the same. Wild card bets: Fellowship, Lani, and Laoban. Reasoning after the jump! With just over an hour before the 142nd running of the Run for Roses, I realize that I don't have enough time to finish my contender profile series with 14 horses left to profile. Down the wire as usual, I'm just going to go over the remaining horses briefly, along with why or why not I'm betting on them. Then I'll cap everything off with my final predictions. In order of post position:
Jockey: John Velazquez Post Position: 15 out of 20 Morning-Line Odds: 15-1 Race RecordsToday with the Kentucky Derby, Outwork will have his 5th start. His first two were his maiden and an allowance race. His third start was the 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby, which he came second in. And most recently, he won the sloppy, 9f Wood Memorial. His preference is clearly as a frontrunner, and he does not seem to mind the mud. I expect that he'll break to the front again today, and probably maintain for a while, but he was awfully close to losing the Wood Memorial to Adventist, so I don't hold a lot of hope for his ability to last an additional quarter mile here. PedigreeUncle Mo x Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker. For information on Uncle Mo's pedigree, see my description of him for Nyquist's contender profile. Nonna Mia was a fast little sprinter during her career as a racer, during which time she started 7 times and won 2. But her sire, Empire Maker was an established veteran of the track, especially with longer distances. Empire Maker came second in the Kentucky Derby, but first in the Belmont. His sire is Unbirdled, son of Fappiano. Nonna Mia's dam's side is also solid: her damsire is Holy Bull. The only inbreeding Outwork has in his 5 generations are two instances of Northern Dancer, one on each side. ConformationThis is the best picture available for Outwork. He's a tall horse, clearly. He has huge hindquarters and what looks to be a good cannon:forearm ratio. I like how solid his hooves are. What's unclear here is his back and his hind legs.
Jockey: Luis Saez Post Position: 19 out of 20 Morning-Line Odds: 12-1 Race RecordProbably worth noting that in a field with Equibase speed figures over 110, Brody's Cause's highest speed tracked is 99, even after his drive in the Blue Grass. Similar to Creator, one thing that stands out to me about Brody's Cause's run in the Blue Grass is the fact that while he was able to close somewhat impressively, he did need a good deal of urging and the horses close behind him seem to have been accelerating rapidly. In one of the most outside post positions, however, I think he might have more luck than Creator as a closer. But his low speed factor makes me think twice about betting on him. PedigreeGiants Causeway x Sweet Breanna, by Sahm. Giants Causeway is the heralded son of Storm Cat, the great sire who combined the lines of Secretariat and Northern Dancer. Giants Causeway's dam, Mariah's Storm, is out of Rahy, a son of Blushing Groom. Sweet Breanna's pedigree is relatively unassuming. Her sire, Sahm is best known by his own pedigree, as the son of Mr. Prospector and Salsabil, the first filly to win the Irish Derby in 90 years. This pedigree is decent, but I do prefer to see sires like Storm Cat on the dam's side as opposed to the sire's. ConformationAlthough he's a yearling in this picture, he's mostly developed enough for me to notice his legs... Chiefly that he's pretty over at the knee in that left front leg. He has a nice neck though- good length and musculature. His hindquarter to should ratio is good. Pasterns are medium-to-long and slopey.
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. Post Position: 3 out of 20 Morning-Line Odds: 10-1 Race RecordI'm going to keep this pretty brief since I already discussed Creator in my second Where We're At post. Creator took 7 tries to break his maiden, ultimately getting the job done less than a month before his start in the Risen Star, which he came 3rd in. As far as his race record goes, I don't feel great about Creator's chances today. He is a DEEP closer, and he's going to have a much bigger bunch of horses to cut through for a closing drive than he did in the Arkansas. Additionally, he seems to have need a lot of urging to manage what ended up being a one and a quarter length victory over an accelerating Suddenbreakingnews. PedigreeTapit x Morena (PER), by Privately Held. Tapit's record as a racehorse looks a lot like what I imagine Creator's will probably look like: he won a 9f Derby prep race and then came 9th in the Derby. But Tapit's strength as a sire comes more from his pedigree. In addition to being by A.P. Indy son Pulpit, Tapit's damsire is famous Fappiano son Unbridled. Also, Tapit's dam's dam, Ruby Slippers, is a Nijinsky daughter. Morena was a great Peruvian racer of modest ancestry. The biggest prominent horse in her pedigree is Summing, who won the 1981 Belmont Stakes. Essentially, Creator's probably got some staying power on his dam's side. ConformationThere aren't many good pictures of Creator at a standstill available, so this bath photo is the best I could do on short notice. He does have the good conformation typical of many of the colts that Tapit throws. Well-developed and well-muscled hind end. Muscular back and a deep girth. His neck and throatlatch look pretty clean, as do his legs. Solid, well-sized hooves.
Jockey: Florent Geroux Post Position: 5 out of 20 Morning-Line Odds: 10-1 Race Record PedigreeCandy Ride (ARG) x Quiet Giant, by Giants Causeway. Candy Ride, grandson (via sire Ride the Rails) of prolific Fappiano son Cryptoclearance, was a champion miler in Argentina. His damsire, Candy Stripes, was a son of Blushing Groom, who won many of France's most prestigious distance races. Quiet Giant, who won 7 of her 12 starts (and placed in 2), has a solid pedigree. Her sire, Giants Causeway, is a son of Storm Cat and was successful in his own right across the pond. Her damsire is Quiet American, another son of Fappiano. In addition to two occurrences of Northern Dancer on Gun Runner's dam’s side, Blushing Groom and Lyphard (himself a son of Northern Dancer) appear once each on either side. I like that there’s a good deal of diversity of country of origin here (mostly from Candy Ride) and also the Secretariat on Quiet Giant’s side, but I’m not super keen on the double Fappiano along with double Northern Dancer. ConformationAside from a slightly lean neck and being possibly a little bit tied in beneath the knee, Gun Runner seems to have very ideal conformation. He has a large shoulder, yes, but an equally large hindquarter. Nice short back and a clean throatlatch. His pasterns have a good slope to them without being too long. Correct, clean legs with a good cannon:forearm ratio.
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Post Position: 11 out of 20 Morning-line Odds: 8-1 Race RecordOne thing's for sure: if the track is sloppy on Saturday, Exaggerator will have a good race. After 9 starts, he's won 4, placed in 2, and showed in 1. His two most recent wins were the 8.5 furlong Delta Downs Jackpot in November and the 9 furlong Santa Anita Derby, videos of which are posted below. When I was handicapping the Santa Anita Derby, I noted that Exaggerator's win in the Delta Downs (pp. 9/10) was slim- a neck. And if you watch the video, you see that he runs mostly on the pace. While it was mostly effective for the win then, he displayed a lot of flexibility when he ran as a closer in the Santa Anita (pp. 2/8) and ended up over 6 lengths ahead of second place finisher Mor Spirit. How he'll choose to run at the Derby will be interesting, but it seems like he'll probably want to preserve his energy, so I would expect a light closing/stalking style. Coming out of the 11 hole, the concern is obviously that he'll get caught in traffic, either right out of the gate or later, when he wants to make a closing drive. As far as distance is concerned, as long as the pace is neither too fast nor slow, I think he can handle it. PedigreeCurlin x Dawn Raid, by Vindication. Curlin is a dynamo of racing: $10.5 million in race earnings, 11 wins in 16 starts over about 3 years, and 2007's Horse of the Year. Especially relevant here is that 5 out of Curlin's 11 wins came at distances of 10 furlongs (1 1/4 mile), just like the Derby. As far as sires go Curlin is a good one to have. He brings to the table sire Smart Strike, who is touted as "Mr. Prospector's leading all-weather sire." (It certainly seems like that "all weather" ability has passed to Exaggerator!) On his dam's side, Curlin's damsire is well-raced Canadian bred Deputy Minister. Dawn Raid has a great pedigree for a Derby hopeful's dam. Her sire Vindication is a son of the great Seattle Slew, and her damsire Bold Ruckus is a grandson of Secretariat sire Bold Ruler, via Boldnesian (also in Seattle Slew's sire line). ConformationOverall, I like what I see. He seems a little bit over at the knee on his right knee (more visible in the above picture of him), but otherwise he's very balanced. The angle of the below picture shows that his legs are correct. His shoulder is sloped nicely and his hind end is well-muscled. Pretty good forearm:cannon ratio. Deep girth, and not too wasp waisted for being so fit.
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Post Position: 13 out of 20 Morning-Line Odds: 3-1 Race RecordNyquist tops my homemade Derby point matrix in large part due to his as-of-yet unrelentless winning. That's right, Nyquist is undefeated in his 7 starts. His wins include the prestigious Breeders' Cup Juvenile as well as the Best Pal Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes, San Vicente Stakes, and the Florida Derby. After all those wins, Nyquist's non-restricted stakes earnings now are well over $3 million. As you can see in the Florida Derby race replay, he tends to have a front running style. Also visible in that video is how little jockey Mario Gutierrez has to use his crop, even down the stretch. PedigreeUncle Mo x Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry. As mentioned in my original Part of this hesitancy came from the top line of his pedigree since he's a son of Indian Charlie, who had not been noted as a sire of sires. Furthermore, Indian Charlie's own sire was the relatively obscure and underappreciated In Excess -- who traces back on top to Caro and Nasrullah. These days, if a horse does not hail from the Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer male lines, there will be skepticism about his chances at stud. Nyquist's pedigree is a great example of this lack of inbreeding. In five generations, the only inbreeding is just two instances of Norther Dancer, one on either side, back in the fifth generation. Uncle Mo's dam's side is not necessarily more or less impressive than his sire's side. Dam Playa Maya, by Arch (whose damsire is Danzig) and out of a Dixieland Band daughter, won 3 out of her 6 starts and placed or showed in the other 3. I really like what Seeking Gabrielle brings to the proverbial pedigree table here: her sire, Forestry, is a son of Storm Cat. Additionally, damsire Seeking the Gold was a fairly successful son of Mr. Prospector, both on the track and in the shed. In 15 starts, he won 8 and placed in 6, amassing over $2.3 million in earnings (equivalent to approximately $4.8 million today when inflation is taken into consideration). At stud, he produced 4 Breeders' Cup champions and his combined progeny have won over $85 million. All in all, I think that Uncle Mo's pedigree, while understated, is clearly very complementary to that of a dam like Seeking Gabrielle. I love seeing horses like Storm Cat on the dam's side in contenders for 10f/mile and a quarter races due to the probability of the X-factor being passed on that way. ConformationIt's hard to say for sure, but my guess is that this picture is of Nyquist as a yearling at a Fasig Tipton sale. That would explain how butt-high he is here, as that is relatively typical for a growing yearling. So when you look at him to evaluate conformation, keep in mind that he's probably a bit more even now.
Some general notes:
With a little over a week since the Arkansas Derby (and the Lexington, although none of those finishers ultimately qualified for the Kentucky Derby), I figured I would go over its results, the final list of potential Kentucky Derby contenders, some info about them, and my updated point matrix. More after the jump!
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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