Since 2013, Kentucky Derby contenders are largely determined by a point system based on each horse's performance (if they come first, second, third, or fourth) in any of 34 races considered to be Kentucky Derby prep races. The so-called Road to the Derby began on September 12th with the 1 1/16th mile Iroquois Stakes and will end this Saturday with both the 1 1/8th mile Arkansas Derby and the 1 1/16th mile Coolmore Lexington Stakes. The races range in point distribution from 10-4-2-1 to 100-40-20-10. The Kentucky Derby website keeps a leaderboard based on the given rankings, but I decided to make my own, more specific leaderboard (click to download .xslx file). What I looked at:
At first, differences between the leaderboards are minimal- a couple switched horses here and there. But then at the bottom it gets a little more interesting: Danzing Candy (144.5 of my points) and Destin (149.5) are gone, and Oscar Nominated and Fellowship are in. How did they get that much more points? Oscar Nominated had previously raced at Churchill Downs but seems to get most of his points in my system from his 7 starts, 3 wins (one of which was at 1 1/8th miles), and 2 places. Fellowship got a leg up when I added in lengths ahead of next consecutive finisher to the points assigned by the Kentucky Derby for horses that come first, second, third, or fourth in qualifying races. However, he's also got the most starts (eleven!) out of all the horses on my list. Fun facts about the contenders:
With the Arkansas Derby this weekend, it'll be interesting to see how both the KYDerby.com leaderboard and my own crazy one will shake out going into the official Derby season. Who are your favorites for the Kentucky Derby at this point? Any horses you feel are overrated? Any horses you think should be higher on the list? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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