Authentic very nearly could not be held back on Saturday. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke barely had to ask him the question before he broke away from the back enthusiastically, needing very little urging down the stretch. It was quite a sight to behold, and to be honest I think we all know that I had imagined Azul Coast pulling off the win in similar fashion. I had made my exactas true, straight exactas, not thinking that Authentic had the win in him, but instead it was Azul Coast who came in second place. So what went wrong? I think I know. Watch the race replay: In his one mile maiden, Azul Coast had raced as a deep closer who came wide around the far turn before barreling down the stretch; he didn't spend much or any time on the rail. So when I saw him go right to the rail in the Sham, I immediately panicked. Sure enough, you can see that he got pretty boxed in there and could never make a very effective move since Zimba Warrior and Taishan (3rd and 4th finishers, respectively) were always there. Notably, it was actually Drayden Van Dyke, not Joel Rosario, who rode Azul Coast in his last race.
Will Authentic be the next Kentucky Derby winner? Only time can tell, but I actually still like Azul Coast a little more for that. He just needs to avoid getting boxed in on the rail during future races so that he can get enough points to qualify for the Derby. But Azul Coast's pedigree is more stamina oriented than Authentic's is. Clearly Authentic has speed and guts, but this race was a mile, and he'd have to keep this level of energy for an additional quarter mile. Overall, I'm pretty pleased with how my return to handicapping has gone. Did I make any money? No, I totally broke even on the $16 I bet, haha. But my overall feel for which horses were the strongest was spot on, even if I didn't get the order right. Lessons learned: spend the extra $2 to do the exacta box and pay attention to jockey changes. Did you bet on this race? How did you do? Who are your favorite Derby contenders so far? ~Gallant Vixen
0 Comments
Good afternoon!It's certainly been a while, but I'm planning on actually going to the Derby this year (fingers crossed!) so I'm starting off the new year right by getting back on my handicapping. I'm sure the Derby will be a good time regardless, but it'll be even more fun if I'm totally up to date on all the contenders since I'll have been following them for months by May 2nd. Sham Stakes PredictionsThe Sham is a miler run at Santa Anita, which you may have seen in the news over the past year or so for unprecedented track deaths (more on that another time). To save time today, I'm not going to be looking at conformation unless a horse has a picture on Pedigree Query. I'm focusing on past race distances and what their pedigree says about their capabilities as mile sprinters.
By post position: 1) Authentic - Broke his 5.5f maiden at Del Mar at the beginning of November. According to Equibase, his workouts have been going well, although the longest so far appears to have been 6 furlongs. Unclear how he'll handle a mile but he's trained by Bob Baffert. Pedigree is Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday son) out of a mare named Flawless who has some distant Secretariat courtesy of Gone West. Overall a nice pedigree for this type of race and possibly even longer, which is probably one of the reasons he was the morning line favorite. 2) Zimba Warrior - Today's race is going to be Zimba's 6th start, 3rd stakes race, and 2nd stakes race at Santa Anita. He broke his maiden (5.5f) on his third try and since that has raced at 6.5 and 7 furlongs, showing both times. His pedigree shows Mr. Prospector on both sides, so I can already imagine what this horse's front end is like. However his sire brings together Distorted Humor and AP Indy, which is interesting. His dam's side is less impressive, although does have Deputy Minister and Bold Ruler a few generations back. Considering his morning line odds are 6-1 and he's come 3rd at this track before, I think Zimba is a great choice for a modest show bet today. 3) Uncaptured Hero - Another horse with 6-1 ML odds, this will be Hero's 3rd start. He is about 2 months out from breaking his 6f maiden at Del Mar. Previously, he came 4th in a 5.5f MSW. My first thought seeing that was perhaps he's doing better with more distance; I just watched a race replay of the race he won and it was definitely not easy for him- he won by a head after taking the early lead. However, these horses are young and their trainers and jockeys are still figuring out which race styles they'll do best with as their bodies continue to grow and mature. Looking to his pedigree, he has Gone West and Seattle Slew on his dam's side and a direct line on his sire's side to Storm Cat. His sire, Uncaptured, was accomplished in his own right with winnings totaling over $1 million. He's definitely one to watch and one I'll place a show bet on. 4) Azul Coast - He's not the favorite but he is a definite favorite in terms of the odds and he is my favorite of this group. The best thing you can see, in my opinion, when you look into a horse's race history is that they've already won at the distance of the race you're handicapping, ideally at the same track. It wasn't at Santa Anita, but Azul Coast (another Baffert-trained colt) broke his maiden on his first try about a month ago at a mile long. Not only did he break his maiden at a mile, he broke it on a day when track conditions were rated "good" (not muddy enough to be wet or sloppy, but not dry enough to be called "fast"), when he had been bumped out of the gate, and when he had to close deeply. While I'm not sure if coming from so far behind is his natural style, it certainly worked for him in that race and he ultimately crossed the finish line several lengths ahead of the other contenders, needing relatively little urging by Joel Rosario once he began pulling away down the stretch. His pedigree absolutely backs up this type of performance considering his sire is Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. His dam, Sky Treasure, also did fairly well for herself over 18 total starts and seems like she was a dirt/turf flexible sprinter. Her sire line goes back to AP Indy, meaning Azul Coast has AP Indy on both sides of his pedigree. He also has Mr. Prospector visible three times in a 5 generation pedigree, but is otherwise fairly balanced with no other inbreeding. I'm going to go full W/P/S on this guy, plus a 4-1 exacta, banking on the fact that Authentic has been training with him so they may be familiar running with each other and end up the 1 and 2 respectively. 5) Scoring - Like Azul Coast, this race will be his second start, but unlike Azul Coast, he still hasn't broken his maiden and his sole attempt was in a 4.5f race in June. He's been working out since then, but I'm definitely curious about why he wasn't entered in any other races in the late fall like the other contenders today- injury? Illness? Immaturity? It's unclear. His pedigree shows a direct sire line to Giants Causeway in his 3rd generation, who himself is a Storm Cat son, but otherwise pretty old school names in here, including 2 instances of Fappiano on his sire's side. His dam's direct grandsire is Deputy Minister. I'm not really seeing anything here that really piques my interest for this race, so I'm going to pass him up, possibly at my own risk. 6) Taishan - Remember how I said that the best thing to see is a horse who's won at the same distance in the last race, ideally at the same racetrack? That's Taishan. In his second start in the beginning of November, he broke his maiden in a one miler at Santa Anita; his first attempt was in a 6f MSW. You might be wondering, based on the fact that the one mile win came at Santa Anita, why Taishan and not Azul Coast is my favorite. The answer is that Taishan had to duel a little harder down the stretch and won by just a head. Additionally, the fact that Azul Coast had the performance that he did on a slightly worse track (despite the rain in New England, Santa Anita is rated fast today) indicates that he could do even better on a faster track, especially with his pedigree. But Taishan is a serious contender too, and I'm certainly not writing him off. His sire, Twirling Candy, is one of Candy Ride's successful progeny. His dam's side isn't the most impressive but has some familiar older names in the distance, like Princequillo, Roberto, Nearctic, and of course Mr. Prospector. Since his current odds are closer to 5-1 than 5-2, I'm going to place a P/S bet on Taishan but also exacta box him with Azul Coast to cover my bases. Post time in the Sham Stakes is around 1:30pm Pacific time/4:30pm Eastern, so I'll update with thoughts and reflections once the race is over! Are you going to be watching? Who are your favorites of the 2020 Triple Crown crop so far? ~Gallant Vixen |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
Categories
All
|