In the interest of following my own rules about betting, I'm sitting this one out financially. However, I've still briefly reviewed the contenders to come up with some predictions. As far as I'm concerned, this race is really going to come down to two horses: famous California Chrome and newcomer Arrogate. More after the jump!
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I'm baaaack, and just in time for the 88th running of the Whitney Stakes! The last time I covered a Saratoga race was when American Pharoah ran in the Travers last August and the "Graveyard of Champions" got another tombstone. Also harkening back to the American Pharoah days is Whitney contender Effinex, who you may best remember as being the only horse during the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic to really ever press Pharoah. With just over an hour to post, my evaluation of the field and predictions for the race are after the jump!
With just over an hour before the 142nd running of the Run for Roses, I realize that I don't have enough time to finish my contender profile series with 14 horses left to profile. Down the wire as usual, I'm just going to go over the remaining horses briefly, along with why or why not I'm betting on them. Then I'll cap everything off with my final predictions. In order of post position:
Considering that the last two runnings of the Santa Anita Derby brought us two prominent Kentucky Derby finishers: Dortmund (third place) last year and California Chrome (won the Derby and Preakness) in 2014. So for me, deciding between the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby wasn't really difficult. Lately, this has been the race that has brought us some really strong contenders. Today, I think those strong contenders are Mor Spirit (4), Danzing Candy (3), and Exaggerator (2). Mor Spirit and Exaggerator are two of the strongest contenders today who have also raced on sloppy or muddy tracks and still come in the muddy. With today's track fixing to be pretty sloppy, I think this is especially relevant. I placed wild card show bets on Diplodocus (9) and Smokey Image (5). I'm somewhat forgiving Diplodocus for his disappointing 5th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby, and I think that Smokey Image could press Danzing Moon enough to finish in the money. Maybe my bets today will bite me in the butt shortly, but I feel pretty confident about the 4-3-2 combo. None of the other horses really stood out to me, but you can read my detailed analysis in the attached file. If you're trying to wager with TwinspiresTV, it's not working for me either right now. You're not alone! With 15 minutes to post, did you bet on anyone in this field? Who and why? Updated results when they happen! ~Gallant Vixen
I'm back! With about 10 minutes to post, a quick run down through my bets for today's Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Win bets: Forevamo (11), Battery (3) Place bets: Gun Runner (1), Greenpointcrusader (2) Show bets: Dazzling Gem (9), Candy My Boy (5) Even though Forevamo didn't win the Risen Star, he came pretty close, and I think that his overall history make this more of a possibility for him. Battery has actually won at this distance recently, which is something that no one else on the field can say. Gun Runner of course gets a bet for winning the Risen Stakes, which was on the same track. Greenpointcrusader seems like a true crusader, and ran second to my favorite Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. Dazzling Gem has a great pedigree but also is undefeated right now and seems determined, plus has a good build with great hindquarters, which to me bodes well for increased distance and endurance. Finally, Candy My Boy is clearly a speed horse but he has successfully raced against Forevamo and put in a good bid in the Risen Star, so he got a $1 wild card show bet. For more detailed reasoning regarding the contenders' race records, pedigrees, and conformation, check out the downloadable file linked at the end of this post. As many of today's contenders are Risen Star Stakes 2016 alumni, I've attached a replay of that race below for your convenience!
I'm actually making good on my resolution to prepare in advance, so today I'm bringing you my predictions over an hour before post! The Sham Stakes, named after one of Secretariat's most notorious colleagues, is one mile on the dirt and will give the first three finishers a nice dash of Kentucky Derby points. When I first began handicapping this after the post positions were released on Wednesday, Dressed in Hermes was my clear favorite. He's won at one mile twice before, both times on the turf, and both times over other horses racing today. Unfortunately, he was scratched earlier today. With the odds for today's race fairly close (the worst odds today are just 15-1), handicapping in Dressed in Hermes' absence was somewhat tricky. However, since several of these horses have been in the same races, I used that to develop a hierarchy of sorts to guide me. As always, my detailed analysis is linked below. My focus today is going to be on I'malreadythere, Let's Meet in Rio, and Collected. Those three, I think, have the best chance of either winning or placing. Of course, all three can't win or place, so I'll be placing show bets on them as well. I'm not 100% sold on Collected to win, however, so just a place/show on him. My wild card bets are going to be Found Money, Laoban, and Rare Candy. I'm not going to put anything on Semper Fortis and Sorryaboutnothing. What I like about...
~Gallant Vixen
UPDATE: Just placed my bets now. For some reason, the lowest bet available was $2. Due to limited funds (I don't like to ever drain my account out completely), I could only place win/place bets on Let's Meet in Rio and I'malreadythere. $18 is a lot more than I've bet recently but it's all mostly rolled over in my account for what I've won back in the last several months. Here's to hoping I get most of it back today too!
I played it really down to the wire here, but here are my bets for today's Jerome Stakes. Ultimately, I'm sticking with the other handicappers with Flexibility for the win here, but I also really like Let Me Go First for win or place since he just broke his maiden at this distance. I really liked Vorticity when I was looking over pedigrees and race stats last night, but I'm just not sure he can manage the distance, so as risky as it may be not to place any bet on him, I didn't. I also think that the number 1 and 2 horses, Silent Assassin and In Equality, respectively, might surprise us here, and their odds are good enough that it would be a decent payout if they did. Bird of Trey was my wild card. Attached is my very bare (with no conformation investigation since it's tough to find pictures early on in these guys' careers) contenders evaluation! ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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