Travers Debrief Well, it happened: American Pharoah had a bad day. Likely worn out from holding off Frosted, Keen Ice plowed past Pharoah in the final furlongs of the Travers Stakes. Today, the "graveyard" gets another champion. All that said, Keen Ice was a worthy winner. As I mentioned in my last post, out of all the horses in the field today, he's raced against and lost to Pharoah the most. Finally, he avenged himself. Early predictions indicate that Keen Ice's speed score for this race was a 106, which is pretty damn amazing. I'd also like to praise Jose Lezcano for his work with Frosted. I was hoping that Frosted would keep closer to Pharoah today and that's exactly what he did. Granted, Keen Ice foiled his plans, but a great run nonetheless. What's next for Pharoah? It's too soon to say, but the biggest question is whether Baffert will continue with the presumed plan to race him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup or just try and train him going into the Breeders' Cup Classic. On one hand, another race would likely take a lot out of him, especially when the Travers seems like it already may have. But on the other hand, only one horse has ever won the Breeders' Cup that didn't race at all in September or October, Invasor in 2006. Plus, a race like the Gold Cup would provide a good litmus test for how Pharoah might perform in the Breeders' Cup. Ball's in your court, Baffert. Lessons Learned in Handicapping My usual weakness in handicapping is exacta boxing, usually my two favorite horses. Today, I placed a $1 exacta bet on both American Pharoah-Frosted and Pharoah-Keen Ice combos, and then placed a win/place/show on Frosted, and a Place/Show on Keen Ice. I was determined not to fall into my usual trap. What I didn't anticipate, though, was that American Pharoah might come in second. This is where exacta boxing actually would have helped me. I paid $12 total on my bets today, and the Keen Ice-Pharoah $2 exacta payout was $66. If I had done a Keen Ice-Pharoah-Frosted trifecta, the payout was $180/$2. A win bet on Keen Ice alone paid $34. Going forward: I should still be judicious about exactas, but I think if I'm going to spend the dollar to place one exacta, I might as well spend a second to box it. Again though, I need to make sure I'm not just falling back on this, because while the payout is usually great, it only takes one horse's nostril to screw it up. I felt strongly enough about Keen Ice from the get-go to bet an exacta on him, meaning I thought he was definitely capable of coming in second- I felt the same about Frosted, but I also placed a win bet on Frosted. The next time I feel strongly enough about a contender to consider an exacta, I should place a win bet on them as well, unless it seems like they definitely have no chance of winning. In this case, I didn't feel that way about Keen Ice and I literally paid for it (although I "won" more than I lost today). All said and done, I'm pleased with the results of today's race. Sure, I feel bad that Pharoah suffered his first defeat since winning the Triple Crown, but I also have to applaud Frosted and Keen Ice for running a great race. Did you bet in the Travers? How did you fare? Do you think American Pharoah could handle another race before the Breeders' Cup? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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