Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!)
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Race Results Gun Runner took the challenge of an additional sixteenth of a mile more than his previous races completely in stride, winning today's Louisiana Derby by several lengths over second place finisher Tom's Ready. In a photo finish for third, Dazzling Gem beat out Mo Tom seemingly by a nose. Sham Stakes Results Without his rival from the DeMille Stakes, Collected breezed through the finish at the Sham Stakes today. Let's Meet in Rio, with a fantastic closing drive, was a cool second. And Laoban, once again eating Let's Meet in Rio's dirt, came third. Found Money, who had stayed up near the pace through the majority of the race, ended up coming fourth. A replay of the race is posted at the end of this post. As I was watching the post parade, I felt good about Collected. If you read my detailed evaluation of the contenders (linked for download in my last post), you know that I was unable to find any pictures of Collected. In fact, the above picture is the closest I could get to one of him now. So to see him trotting on the track before reaching the gate and seeing how tall yet balanced he is, it was a relief. I almost went back and spent the extra $2 to place a win bet on him, which brings me to... Lessons Learned I broke even!!! Haha, all my learning seems to have led to this moment, where I didn't lose any money at all. Seriously though, I don't have many gripes with the bets I placed today. My only regret is that I didn't place the win bet on Collected, but on the other hand, I was still able to cash in on the place and show bets I had on him. I'm glad I went with my gut for Let's Meet in Rio and Laoban. Today's results tell me that I've gotten comfortable and confident in my handicapping. They're also evidence that solid preparation is so important. My next step is going to be to try and move from simply breaking even or "winning back more than I lose," to actually turning somewhat of a profit. How? Calculating what it would take, based on the odds, to come out on top for each race. This might mean I put more money on the horses I feel more sure of, or possibly return to exacta boxing... But I'd rather start by just putting a few extra bucks on the horses that seem to have the best chance at winning, placing, or showing. As I know from experience, exacta and trifecta boxing is a fickle, fickle game. Speaking of fickle games: before today's results were made official, there was a steward's inquiry on Let's Meet in Rio, Laoban, and Found Money. Luckily, everything turned out good and clean with no one getting disqualified. But for those few minutes where they were investigating the race replay to make sure none of the rules had been violated, I was reminded of yet another reason why there's nothing sure about handicapping. I could have handicapped this race perfectly, I could have been set up for a huge windfall, but all it would take to kill that would be one rule violation on the track, and that bet is a waste. That's why, even when I do have more money available to put on the line, I still keep everything under a set amount. I'd rather be safe and win less money than lose a lot on a mere racetrack technicality. What did you think of the Sham Stakes? Who from this race are you looking forward to seeing more from? Isn't it kind of weird that Penny Chenery was in the winner's circle in a race named after Secretariat's biggest rival? (Just kidding with that last one. I love Penny Chenery and am always glad to see her at events like this.) ~Gallant Vixen
Jerome Results
Displaying true flexibility, Flexibility reverted back to his form from November's one mile Nashua Stakes in which he stayed just off the pace, waiting to make his bid. And today, without Mohaymen ahead of him, he did indeed take the win. This race wasn't without its hitches though. To begin with, Let Me Go First did not actually want to go first, delaying the start by a few minutes due to his stubborn reluctance to enter the gate at all. Seeing his trepidation to enter the gate, I began to regret my faith in him. Even though he did get in the gate eventually, and seemed relatively well-situated before the doors opened, I feel like that sort of loading problem couldn't possibly bode well for the race. However, it was actually Donegal Moon who had the more unfortunate race: with barely one hoof out of the gate, he stumbled and tossed his jockey, Manuel Franco, over his head. Donegal Moon was fine though, and began to doggedly pursue the others, riderless, down the stretch before being caught.
Whether it was due to fate or the gate incident, Let Me Go First never really mounted a serious challenge. Vorticity, on the other hand, did. And working their way toward the finish with gusto were In Equality and Bird of Trey, my show and wild card favorites, respectively. Ultimately, the finishing order was:
Lessons Learned Learning to dance the fine line between trusting my gut and relying on the facts is still a struggle for me. Reviewing the race entries before bed last night, Vorticity clearly stood out to me. However, in the light of day I decided that the distance and the weight (he was carrying 120lbs, which was the heaviest of all the horses on the field today) trumped whatever I saw in him last night. Clearly, I should have gone with my gut this time. Going forward, I want to trust my instincts more (the perpetual resolution, it seems) and also leave myself more time to prepare. Sure, it would take more work to look up clear pictures of these horses to evaluate conformation, but it would likely be worth it. Today, the first time I was able to check out these horses was as they walked in the post parade, which is less than ideal. Ultimately though, I feel good about this race and how I did. I didn't win back all of the $7 that I bet, but I did get back close to $5, which isn't bad. And I resisted the urge to bet exactas or trifectas, which is a win in and of itself for me! Did you bet the Jerome? How did you do? Which races are you most looking forward to? ~Gallant Vixen Travers Debrief Well, it happened: American Pharoah had a bad day. Likely worn out from holding off Frosted, Keen Ice plowed past Pharoah in the final furlongs of the Travers Stakes. Today, the "graveyard" gets another champion. All that said, Keen Ice was a worthy winner. As I mentioned in my last post, out of all the horses in the field today, he's raced against and lost to Pharoah the most. Finally, he avenged himself. Early predictions indicate that Keen Ice's speed score for this race was a 106, which is pretty damn amazing. I'd also like to praise Jose Lezcano for his work with Frosted. I was hoping that Frosted would keep closer to Pharoah today and that's exactly what he did. Granted, Keen Ice foiled his plans, but a great run nonetheless. What's next for Pharoah? It's too soon to say, but the biggest question is whether Baffert will continue with the presumed plan to race him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup or just try and train him going into the Breeders' Cup Classic. On one hand, another race would likely take a lot out of him, especially when the Travers seems like it already may have. But on the other hand, only one horse has ever won the Breeders' Cup that didn't race at all in September or October, Invasor in 2006. Plus, a race like the Gold Cup would provide a good litmus test for how Pharoah might perform in the Breeders' Cup. Ball's in your court, Baffert. Lessons Learned in Handicapping My usual weakness in handicapping is exacta boxing, usually my two favorite horses. Today, I placed a $1 exacta bet on both American Pharoah-Frosted and Pharoah-Keen Ice combos, and then placed a win/place/show on Frosted, and a Place/Show on Keen Ice. I was determined not to fall into my usual trap. What I didn't anticipate, though, was that American Pharoah might come in second. This is where exacta boxing actually would have helped me. I paid $12 total on my bets today, and the Keen Ice-Pharoah $2 exacta payout was $66. If I had done a Keen Ice-Pharoah-Frosted trifecta, the payout was $180/$2. A win bet on Keen Ice alone paid $34. Going forward: I should still be judicious about exactas, but I think if I'm going to spend the dollar to place one exacta, I might as well spend a second to box it. Again though, I need to make sure I'm not just falling back on this, because while the payout is usually great, it only takes one horse's nostril to screw it up. I felt strongly enough about Keen Ice from the get-go to bet an exacta on him, meaning I thought he was definitely capable of coming in second- I felt the same about Frosted, but I also placed a win bet on Frosted. The next time I feel strongly enough about a contender to consider an exacta, I should place a win bet on them as well, unless it seems like they definitely have no chance of winning. In this case, I didn't feel that way about Keen Ice and I literally paid for it (although I "won" more than I lost today). All said and done, I'm pleased with the results of today's race. Sure, I feel bad that Pharoah suffered his first defeat since winning the Triple Crown, but I also have to applaud Frosted and Keen Ice for running a great race. Did you bet in the Travers? How did you fare? Do you think American Pharoah could handle another race before the Breeders' Cup? ~Gallant Vixen |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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