Race Results Gun Runner took the challenge of an additional sixteenth of a mile more than his previous races completely in stride, winning today's Louisiana Derby by several lengths over second place finisher Tom's Ready. In a photo finish for third, Dazzling Gem beat out Mo Tom seemingly by a nose. With today's win, Gun Runner proved that he can be flexible with his running style and handle an increased distance with ease. Unlike his past races, where he hung back a little more and went with a closing drive, he adopted more of a pacesetter style today, hanging just behind early leader Candy My Boy, never very far away. This put him in a perfect position to strike coming around the stretch. Dazzling Gem held on to his third place spot after having stayed up near Gun Runner and Candy My Boy for most of the race as well. The real surprise to me was Tom's Ready, who seems to have finally figured out which running style works best for him- a moderate close. But even though he had the most starts out of any other horse today, he also had the shoddiest record for this type of distance to me. Full results:
Lessons Learned Despite the fact that Gun Runner clearly had the prep race advantage today having won the Risen Star Stakes previously, I still feel okay with my decision to only bet place/show for him. It still had a decent return, and I would rather have spent less money and won some on that prudence than have placed a win bet I wasn't confident about and lost that $1. I'm also glad that I went with my intuition for Dazzling Gem, who pulled off the show pretty nicely. That said, I think I made some pretty basic mistakes here, the biggest and most obvious of those being my WPS on Battery. Once again, this really goes back to giving myself more time to prepare, because in my handicapping notes (attached at the bottom of the predictions post) I clearly described the fact that Battery had the slowest speed rating on the field and that even though he had raced at 1 1/8th mile successfully, he might not be able to stand up to the type of speed present today. But in my last minute scramble to decide which bets to place, I just remembered that he was the only horse who had handled this distance before, disregarding all the other damning evidence I had that he definitely would not be able to pull off a win. I don't regret my bets on Candy My Boy and Greenpointcrusader, as I feel like my reasons for those were both valid even if they didn't end up panning out. Another frequent topic of these "lessons learned" sections is how much weight to give a gut feeling, especially one that comes from seeing the horse, either in a picture when researching conformation or in the post parade. Today paints an interesting example: I placed a win bet on Forevamo based on his previous races, thinking he could handle the increased distance and weight based on his near win in the Risen Star. However, when I looked at a picture of him, his build seemed like the least conducive to a longer race like this. I noted that he was leggy (not super unusual for a young horse, but he stood out in comparison to the other contenders' pictures) and that his hip had an almost oblong shape to it. It was underwhelming to say the least, but I was already feeling confident about his race record and post time was fast approaching by the time that I had started researching conformation (again: need to leave more time). Meanwhile, I had joked about Tom's Ready's race record in my notes, snidely remarking that I didn't think he was "ready" (ha). But he was easily one of the most attractive horses in the field to me when I saw a picture of him. After so many experiences where I decide to bet on a horse that ultimately seems under-qualified just because of looks and it literally costs me, I decided to just go with the logic here. In summary: if I could have done these bets again, I wouldn't have bet WPS on Battery, maybe just a show bet to acknowledge the fact that he had raced at this distance before. But possibly nothing because so many of the other horses in this field were clearly faster and more experienced with this track than him. I also would have placed a $1 show bet on Tom's Ready- not just because I liked the way he looked, but also because his odds were so high that my intuition clearly could have paid off here (a show bet on him would have paid a little over $12), unlike with the other "ooh, pretty" last minute bets I've placed in the past. Not only do I want to improve on balancing my intuition with logic, but also factoring a horse's odds into whether to bet and how much to bet. And both of those things will require ample planning time...
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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