Previous races are the most concrete way to predict success.Looking at a horse's pedigree and conformation are both parts of the larger puzzle, but at the end of the day, they are fairly conjectural. Sure, we can guess that because a horse has long forearms and short cannon bones that they will have a nice, long stride, but by watching videos of previous races, we know for sure. We might notice that a horse has ancestors known for their ability over distance, but until we see that horse himself making strides at toward those distances, there's no guarantee.
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Although evaluating a horse's race record is one main step, I look for several different factors both in the written record (I like to use Equibase for this) and, when available, in videos of the previous races. When reading a horse's written record, I prefer to download the race chart .PDFs, like this one:
What's great about these charts is that they contain pretty much all the information you need or might want to know, including many of the things that you might also notice in a video, such as track surface, racing conditions, and the distance between horses at the finish line. In the above example, from the 2015 running of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, we can see that the weather was cloudy, the overall track condition was "fast" (basically normal), and the race was run on dirt. Looking specifically at American Pharoah, we can see in the "Fin" column toward the right that he came in first place, and that he was 8 lengths ahead of the 2nd place finisher, Far Right. Far Right, in turn, was just 3/4 of a length ahead of Mr. Z. The comments column is helpful for a brief overview, but if we scroll down to the bottom of the first page to the "Footnotes" section, we get a more detailed analysis of how each horse ran in the race, listed typically in the order of finish. I find this section particularly helpful when I'm either in a hurry or in a place where I can't stream/watch race replay videos easily. Another column that is handy to make note of is the "Wgt" or weight column: this is showing how much total weight the horse was carrying. I mostly make note of this when a horse who won, showed, or placed was carrying less weight than other competitors. In this case, we can see that 3rd place finisher Mr. Z was carrying 4 pounds less than Pharoah and Far Right.
Factors to Consider
Race DistanceIn an ideal world, the horses will have all raced in races of the same distance as the race you're handicapping. However, especially in the case of horses preparing for the Kentucky Derby, their race record will probably consist of shorter races than the race in question. Naturally, a horse's success at 1 3/16th miles tends to be a better indicator of their prospective performance at a mile and a quarter than 1 1/8th miles, which is better than 1 1/16th miles, and so on. Always take note of the distance of past races, and how well the horse seemed to handle that distance. When looking for a mile and a quarter, for example, you ideally want to see a horse either consistent in winning at both 1 1/16th and 1 1/8th mile races, or consistently improving with the longer distances.
Win LengthAlong the same line as the race distance, also consider the distance between the horses as they cross the finish line. Looking above to the Arkansas Derby race chart, Far Right came in second place. Good for him, right? But note that he was 8 lengths behind Pharoah. This shows that 1) Pharoah handled the 1 1/8 miles easily, and looked pretty good for handling a mile and a quarter, and 2) Far Right could not keep up. However, what's more apparent in videos but also somewhat available to see in the chart is the horses' rates of acceleration. In the charts, this is apparent by analyzing the change in the horse's position in the "Start," "1/4," "1/2," etc. columns. So when you're handicapping a mile and a quarter race and looking at a 1 1/16th mile race, you want to see a horse that, even though he may have finished 2nd, 3rd, or out of the money entirely, was gaining speed and going up in position as they approached the finish line. A recent example of this would be Frosted's performance in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Overall, look for horses that are winning the shorter races by good distances (i.e. multiple lengths) over their competitors, or moving quickly through the ranks during the race.
AttitudeThis is a fairly minor factor, but it's also one that I place a fair amount of stock in. Essentially, my theory is that graded stakes racing is difficult, and thus requires a horse that not only has the build and energy to win, but also wants to win, and enjoys racing. To evaluate this, I find action pictures to be the most helpful. I look at what the horse's body language is saying, and prefer to see horses that approach the finish line with their ears pricked and nostrils flared. That said, some successful horses cross the finish line looking like Mr. Speaker, pictured below.
So if everything else in this section is pointing toward a horse's success at a given distance but he looks "mad" or anxious at finishing, don't let that overrule the data and/or your gut feeling. Basically, I've noticed that horses who seem excited about running seem to do better, but this certainly isn't an end-all-be-all.
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Post PositionFor the most part, horses do well with familiarity. You might notice, for example, that a horse will be doing very well at one track, but won't perform as well at the other tracks, even if the race distances and track conditions are otherwise the same. It's similar with post positions: some horses do better or prefer being toward the inside or outside, usually depending on their running style. A horse that has done well starting from post positions on the outside might be stymied when starting from a post position that will put them solidly in the middle of the other horses; a horse that likes to ride the rail may have a more difficult time getting past the horses closer to the rail if he has to start from an outside position. Conversely, you might notice that a horse who seems like he could be performing better (e.g. makes a closing move down the stretch that would have been more successful if he could have been closer to the inside) if he were in a different position. If a horse has performed consistently well from one set of post positions, it follows that they have a better chance of success starting from one of those positions in future races. As such, make note of the positions a horse has been most successful from, and also those which he doesn't seem do as well from.
JockeyThis one relates both to the familiarity aspect mentioned above, and also to attitude. If a horse has been doing consistently well under a particular jockey, don't discount this. That jockey clearly understands this horse and how to work well with them. Sudden changes to the jockey might make a difference on how well the horse runs. Another jockey-related factor to look at when evaluating previous races with video replays is how and when the jockey is asking the horse, and how the horse is responding. At the start of the race, you'll notice that most jockeys are holding the reins tight back to avoid the horses tiring themselves out too soon. However, once it's time for the horse to open up and make their final drive, typically one of two things will happen: the jockey will "ask the question," or urge the horse forward with a rein release, which tells the horse to dig into their energy reserves and kick off. This style was very apparent in Pharoah's Rebel Stakes performance. Other horses will need more urging (usually this means waving or tapping with the crop) to cross the finish line. While there are definitely some horses who seem to need more definitive urging (which depends on style and training) to kick off, I prefer to see a horse that is being held back only to be asked the question with a rein release.
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Running StyleThere are several different ways that handicappers describe running styles, but they can all basically be broken down into 4 styles. Frontrunners are the speed horses that you see out ahead, leading the race from the get-go. Pacesetters (also sometimes called "pressers") won't be in the lead from the beginning, but will be just a couple lengths behind the frontrunner, occasionally pressing them to go faster than they may be able to sustain. Stalkers will be just off the pacesetters, keeping a little off the pace but still within fair striking distance of the lead. Closers will be well off the pace, sometimes even bringing up the rear, and will usually go for gold with one big drive down the stretch. Some horses can be flexible in which running style they employ depending on post position and track condition, but most seem to have a preference. To use American Pharoah as an example again, he tended toward either being a frontrunner or setting the pace just off the leader. Frosted, on the other hand, tends toward being a closer (albeit not closing too "deep," or coming from very far behind), although he acted as more of a presser in the Travers. Another thing that's important to note is that while a horse may have their preferred running style, trainers and jockeys have their own styles that they prefer. Trainers tend toward going with what the horse does best with, and jockeys often listen to the trainers and the horse as they're racing; sometimes, what a horse prefers and what a jockey prefers in terms of running style are very different. For a classic example of this, look no further than Ride on Curlin, being ridden by Calvin "Bo-Rail" Borel in the 2014 running of the Derby. Borel is an amazing jockey, and it's no secret that he prefers to be on the rail, hence his nickname. Ride on Curlin, from his previous races, is a closer who does well coming down the middle of the stretch, to the outside of the frontrunners. In the first few seconds following the start of the 2014 Kentucky Derby, we see Borel guide Ride on Curlin from far outside post position #18 in a direct beeline to the rail, behind the quickly forming pack. Not only did this take up time at the beginning of the race, it also resulted in Ride on Curlin getting stuck behind all the horses ahead of him on the rail, making it impossible for him to muster much of a serious challenge. However, in the Preakness a few weeks later, Joel Rosario slowly guides Ride on Curlin from another far outside post position (#10) to run off the rail, allowing him a clearer path when the time came for his final drive, which earned him a 2nd place finish. Although it depends on the horse, I usually like the horses that race just off the pace (but aren't very deep closers) for longer races like the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. That said, horses in recent years like Pharoah and Orb are proof that frontrunners can handle the distance too sometimes.
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