With a little over a week since the Arkansas Derby (and the Lexington, although none of those finishers ultimately qualified for the Kentucky Derby), I figured I would go over its results, the final list of potential Kentucky Derby contenders, some info about them, and my updated point matrix. More after the jump!
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Since 2013, Kentucky Derby contenders are largely determined by a point system based on each horse's performance (if they come first, second, third, or fourth) in any of 34 races considered to be Kentucky Derby prep races. The so-called Road to the Derby began on September 12th with the 1 1/16th mile Iroquois Stakes and will end this Saturday with both the 1 1/8th mile Arkansas Derby and the 1 1/16th mile Coolmore Lexington Stakes. The races range in point distribution from 10-4-2-1 to 100-40-20-10.
The Kentucky Derby website keeps a leaderboard based on the given rankings, but I decided to make my own, more specific leaderboard (click to download .xslx file). Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) Considering that the last two runnings of the Santa Anita Derby brought us two prominent Kentucky Derby finishers: Dortmund (third place) last year and California Chrome (won the Derby and Preakness) in 2014. So for me, deciding between the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby wasn't really difficult. Lately, this has been the race that has brought us some really strong contenders. Today, I think those strong contenders are Mor Spirit (4), Danzing Candy (3), and Exaggerator (2). Mor Spirit and Exaggerator are two of the strongest contenders today who have also raced on sloppy or muddy tracks and still come in the muddy. With today's track fixing to be pretty sloppy, I think this is especially relevant. I placed wild card show bets on Diplodocus (9) and Smokey Image (5). I'm somewhat forgiving Diplodocus for his disappointing 5th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby, and I think that Smokey Image could press Danzing Moon enough to finish in the money. Maybe my bets today will bite me in the butt shortly, but I feel pretty confident about the 4-3-2 combo. None of the other horses really stood out to me, but you can read my detailed analysis in the attached file. If you're trying to wager with TwinspiresTV, it's not working for me either right now. You're not alone! With 15 minutes to post, did you bet on anyone in this field? Who and why? Updated results when they happen! ~Gallant Vixen
Race Results Gun Runner took the challenge of an additional sixteenth of a mile more than his previous races completely in stride, winning today's Louisiana Derby by several lengths over second place finisher Tom's Ready. In a photo finish for third, Dazzling Gem beat out Mo Tom seemingly by a nose. I'm back! With about 10 minutes to post, a quick run down through my bets for today's Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Win bets: Forevamo (11), Battery (3) Place bets: Gun Runner (1), Greenpointcrusader (2) Show bets: Dazzling Gem (9), Candy My Boy (5) Even though Forevamo didn't win the Risen Star, he came pretty close, and I think that his overall history make this more of a possibility for him. Battery has actually won at this distance recently, which is something that no one else on the field can say. Gun Runner of course gets a bet for winning the Risen Stakes, which was on the same track. Greenpointcrusader seems like a true crusader, and ran second to my favorite Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. Dazzling Gem has a great pedigree but also is undefeated right now and seems determined, plus has a good build with great hindquarters, which to me bodes well for increased distance and endurance. Finally, Candy My Boy is clearly a speed horse but he has successfully raced against Forevamo and put in a good bid in the Risen Star, so he got a $1 wild card show bet. For more detailed reasoning regarding the contenders' race records, pedigrees, and conformation, check out the downloadable file linked at the end of this post. As many of today's contenders are Risen Star Stakes 2016 alumni, I've attached a replay of that race below for your convenience!
Sometimes when handicapping you get a "deep" field- this means that the horses are all pretty talented and rather evenly matched. The field for today's race, however, was on the shallow side. I'm grateful for that, since having to decide who to bet on between 14 equally qualified horses would have been a disaster for me. And in an effort to try and actually turn a profit, having less horses to choose from was convenient. Although I anticipate that Kasseopia (2) will place or show, his odds are too good to really make money from. So while I think he could pull it off, my betting does not reflect that. Otherwise, I really like Diplodocus (10) and Frank Conversation (12) to come somewhere in the money. Diplodocus has actually won at 1 1/8th mile before, and Frank Conversation has proven himself recently at 1 1/16th mile on this very track in the California Derby. I placed show bets on Marqula (7) and Tusk (8) due to their experiences either with the track (Marqula) or similar distances (Tusk), plus a wild card show bet on Algenon (9) because I liked the way he looked before rider's up, and since he had come 3rd in the California Derby.
Sham Stakes Results Without his rival from the DeMille Stakes, Collected breezed through the finish at the Sham Stakes today. Let's Meet in Rio, with a fantastic closing drive, was a cool second. And Laoban, once again eating Let's Meet in Rio's dirt, came third. Found Money, who had stayed up near the pace through the majority of the race, ended up coming fourth. A replay of the race is posted at the end of this post. As I was watching the post parade, I felt good about Collected. If you read my detailed evaluation of the contenders (linked for download in my last post), you know that I was unable to find any pictures of Collected. In fact, the above picture is the closest I could get to one of him now. So to see him trotting on the track before reaching the gate and seeing how tall yet balanced he is, it was a relief. I almost went back and spent the extra $2 to place a win bet on him, which brings me to... Lessons Learned I broke even!!! Haha, all my learning seems to have led to this moment, where I didn't lose any money at all. Seriously though, I don't have many gripes with the bets I placed today. My only regret is that I didn't place the win bet on Collected, but on the other hand, I was still able to cash in on the place and show bets I had on him. I'm glad I went with my gut for Let's Meet in Rio and Laoban. Today's results tell me that I've gotten comfortable and confident in my handicapping. They're also evidence that solid preparation is so important. My next step is going to be to try and move from simply breaking even or "winning back more than I lose," to actually turning somewhat of a profit. How? Calculating what it would take, based on the odds, to come out on top for each race. This might mean I put more money on the horses I feel more sure of, or possibly return to exacta boxing... But I'd rather start by just putting a few extra bucks on the horses that seem to have the best chance at winning, placing, or showing. As I know from experience, exacta and trifecta boxing is a fickle, fickle game. Speaking of fickle games: before today's results were made official, there was a steward's inquiry on Let's Meet in Rio, Laoban, and Found Money. Luckily, everything turned out good and clean with no one getting disqualified. But for those few minutes where they were investigating the race replay to make sure none of the rules had been violated, I was reminded of yet another reason why there's nothing sure about handicapping. I could have handicapped this race perfectly, I could have been set up for a huge windfall, but all it would take to kill that would be one rule violation on the track, and that bet is a waste. That's why, even when I do have more money available to put on the line, I still keep everything under a set amount. I'd rather be safe and win less money than lose a lot on a mere racetrack technicality. What did you think of the Sham Stakes? Who from this race are you looking forward to seeing more from? Isn't it kind of weird that Penny Chenery was in the winner's circle in a race named after Secretariat's biggest rival? (Just kidding with that last one. I love Penny Chenery and am always glad to see her at events like this.) ~Gallant Vixen I'm actually making good on my resolution to prepare in advance, so today I'm bringing you my predictions over an hour before post! The Sham Stakes, named after one of Secretariat's most notorious colleagues, is one mile on the dirt and will give the first three finishers a nice dash of Kentucky Derby points. When I first began handicapping this after the post positions were released on Wednesday, Dressed in Hermes was my clear favorite. He's won at one mile twice before, both times on the turf, and both times over other horses racing today. Unfortunately, he was scratched earlier today. With the odds for today's race fairly close (the worst odds today are just 15-1), handicapping in Dressed in Hermes' absence was somewhat tricky. However, since several of these horses have been in the same races, I used that to develop a hierarchy of sorts to guide me. As always, my detailed analysis is linked below. My focus today is going to be on I'malreadythere, Let's Meet in Rio, and Collected. Those three, I think, have the best chance of either winning or placing. Of course, all three can't win or place, so I'll be placing show bets on them as well. I'm not 100% sold on Collected to win, however, so just a place/show on him. My wild card bets are going to be Found Money, Laoban, and Rare Candy. I'm not going to put anything on Semper Fortis and Sorryaboutnothing. What I like about...
~Gallant Vixen
UPDATE: Just placed my bets now. For some reason, the lowest bet available was $2. Due to limited funds (I don't like to ever drain my account out completely), I could only place win/place bets on Let's Meet in Rio and I'malreadythere. $18 is a lot more than I've bet recently but it's all mostly rolled over in my account for what I've won back in the last several months. Here's to hoping I get most of it back today too!
Jerome Results
Displaying true flexibility, Flexibility reverted back to his form from November's one mile Nashua Stakes in which he stayed just off the pace, waiting to make his bid. And today, without Mohaymen ahead of him, he did indeed take the win. This race wasn't without its hitches though. To begin with, Let Me Go First did not actually want to go first, delaying the start by a few minutes due to his stubborn reluctance to enter the gate at all. Seeing his trepidation to enter the gate, I began to regret my faith in him. Even though he did get in the gate eventually, and seemed relatively well-situated before the doors opened, I feel like that sort of loading problem couldn't possibly bode well for the race. However, it was actually Donegal Moon who had the more unfortunate race: with barely one hoof out of the gate, he stumbled and tossed his jockey, Manuel Franco, over his head. Donegal Moon was fine though, and began to doggedly pursue the others, riderless, down the stretch before being caught.
Whether it was due to fate or the gate incident, Let Me Go First never really mounted a serious challenge. Vorticity, on the other hand, did. And working their way toward the finish with gusto were In Equality and Bird of Trey, my show and wild card favorites, respectively. Ultimately, the finishing order was:
Lessons Learned Learning to dance the fine line between trusting my gut and relying on the facts is still a struggle for me. Reviewing the race entries before bed last night, Vorticity clearly stood out to me. However, in the light of day I decided that the distance and the weight (he was carrying 120lbs, which was the heaviest of all the horses on the field today) trumped whatever I saw in him last night. Clearly, I should have gone with my gut this time. Going forward, I want to trust my instincts more (the perpetual resolution, it seems) and also leave myself more time to prepare. Sure, it would take more work to look up clear pictures of these horses to evaluate conformation, but it would likely be worth it. Today, the first time I was able to check out these horses was as they walked in the post parade, which is less than ideal. Ultimately though, I feel good about this race and how I did. I didn't win back all of the $7 that I bet, but I did get back close to $5, which isn't bad. And I resisted the urge to bet exactas or trifectas, which is a win in and of itself for me! Did you bet the Jerome? How did you do? Which races are you most looking forward to? ~Gallant Vixen |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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