In the interest of following my own rules about betting, I'm sitting this one out financially. However, I've still briefly reviewed the contenders to come up with some predictions. As far as I'm concerned, this race is really going to come down to two horses: famous California Chrome and newcomer Arrogate. More after the jump!
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Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) Considering that the last two runnings of the Santa Anita Derby brought us two prominent Kentucky Derby finishers: Dortmund (third place) last year and California Chrome (won the Derby and Preakness) in 2014. So for me, deciding between the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby wasn't really difficult. Lately, this has been the race that has brought us some really strong contenders. Today, I think those strong contenders are Mor Spirit (4), Danzing Candy (3), and Exaggerator (2). Mor Spirit and Exaggerator are two of the strongest contenders today who have also raced on sloppy or muddy tracks and still come in the muddy. With today's track fixing to be pretty sloppy, I think this is especially relevant. I placed wild card show bets on Diplodocus (9) and Smokey Image (5). I'm somewhat forgiving Diplodocus for his disappointing 5th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby, and I think that Smokey Image could press Danzing Moon enough to finish in the money. Maybe my bets today will bite me in the butt shortly, but I feel pretty confident about the 4-3-2 combo. None of the other horses really stood out to me, but you can read my detailed analysis in the attached file. If you're trying to wager with TwinspiresTV, it's not working for me either right now. You're not alone! With 15 minutes to post, did you bet on anyone in this field? Who and why? Updated results when they happen! ~Gallant Vixen
Sham Stakes Results Without his rival from the DeMille Stakes, Collected breezed through the finish at the Sham Stakes today. Let's Meet in Rio, with a fantastic closing drive, was a cool second. And Laoban, once again eating Let's Meet in Rio's dirt, came third. Found Money, who had stayed up near the pace through the majority of the race, ended up coming fourth. A replay of the race is posted at the end of this post. As I was watching the post parade, I felt good about Collected. If you read my detailed evaluation of the contenders (linked for download in my last post), you know that I was unable to find any pictures of Collected. In fact, the above picture is the closest I could get to one of him now. So to see him trotting on the track before reaching the gate and seeing how tall yet balanced he is, it was a relief. I almost went back and spent the extra $2 to place a win bet on him, which brings me to... Lessons Learned I broke even!!! Haha, all my learning seems to have led to this moment, where I didn't lose any money at all. Seriously though, I don't have many gripes with the bets I placed today. My only regret is that I didn't place the win bet on Collected, but on the other hand, I was still able to cash in on the place and show bets I had on him. I'm glad I went with my gut for Let's Meet in Rio and Laoban. Today's results tell me that I've gotten comfortable and confident in my handicapping. They're also evidence that solid preparation is so important. My next step is going to be to try and move from simply breaking even or "winning back more than I lose," to actually turning somewhat of a profit. How? Calculating what it would take, based on the odds, to come out on top for each race. This might mean I put more money on the horses I feel more sure of, or possibly return to exacta boxing... But I'd rather start by just putting a few extra bucks on the horses that seem to have the best chance at winning, placing, or showing. As I know from experience, exacta and trifecta boxing is a fickle, fickle game. Speaking of fickle games: before today's results were made official, there was a steward's inquiry on Let's Meet in Rio, Laoban, and Found Money. Luckily, everything turned out good and clean with no one getting disqualified. But for those few minutes where they were investigating the race replay to make sure none of the rules had been violated, I was reminded of yet another reason why there's nothing sure about handicapping. I could have handicapped this race perfectly, I could have been set up for a huge windfall, but all it would take to kill that would be one rule violation on the track, and that bet is a waste. That's why, even when I do have more money available to put on the line, I still keep everything under a set amount. I'd rather be safe and win less money than lose a lot on a mere racetrack technicality. What did you think of the Sham Stakes? Who from this race are you looking forward to seeing more from? Isn't it kind of weird that Penny Chenery was in the winner's circle in a race named after Secretariat's biggest rival? (Just kidding with that last one. I love Penny Chenery and am always glad to see her at events like this.) ~Gallant Vixen I'm actually making good on my resolution to prepare in advance, so today I'm bringing you my predictions over an hour before post! The Sham Stakes, named after one of Secretariat's most notorious colleagues, is one mile on the dirt and will give the first three finishers a nice dash of Kentucky Derby points. When I first began handicapping this after the post positions were released on Wednesday, Dressed in Hermes was my clear favorite. He's won at one mile twice before, both times on the turf, and both times over other horses racing today. Unfortunately, he was scratched earlier today. With the odds for today's race fairly close (the worst odds today are just 15-1), handicapping in Dressed in Hermes' absence was somewhat tricky. However, since several of these horses have been in the same races, I used that to develop a hierarchy of sorts to guide me. As always, my detailed analysis is linked below. My focus today is going to be on I'malreadythere, Let's Meet in Rio, and Collected. Those three, I think, have the best chance of either winning or placing. Of course, all three can't win or place, so I'll be placing show bets on them as well. I'm not 100% sold on Collected to win, however, so just a place/show on him. My wild card bets are going to be Found Money, Laoban, and Rare Candy. I'm not going to put anything on Semper Fortis and Sorryaboutnothing. What I like about...
~Gallant Vixen
UPDATE: Just placed my bets now. For some reason, the lowest bet available was $2. Due to limited funds (I don't like to ever drain my account out completely), I could only place win/place bets on Let's Meet in Rio and I'malreadythere. $18 is a lot more than I've bet recently but it's all mostly rolled over in my account for what I've won back in the last several months. Here's to hoping I get most of it back today too!
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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