I'm baaaack, and just in time for the 88th running of the Whitney Stakes! The last time I covered a Saratoga race was when American Pharoah ran in the Travers last August and the "Graveyard of Champions" got another tombstone. Also harkening back to the American Pharoah days is Whitney contender Effinex, who you may best remember as being the only horse during the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic to really ever press Pharoah. With just over an hour to post, my evaluation of the field and predictions for the race are after the jump!
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Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) Considering that the last two runnings of the Santa Anita Derby brought us two prominent Kentucky Derby finishers: Dortmund (third place) last year and California Chrome (won the Derby and Preakness) in 2014. So for me, deciding between the Blue Grass, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby wasn't really difficult. Lately, this has been the race that has brought us some really strong contenders. Today, I think those strong contenders are Mor Spirit (4), Danzing Candy (3), and Exaggerator (2). Mor Spirit and Exaggerator are two of the strongest contenders today who have also raced on sloppy or muddy tracks and still come in the muddy. With today's track fixing to be pretty sloppy, I think this is especially relevant. I placed wild card show bets on Diplodocus (9) and Smokey Image (5). I'm somewhat forgiving Diplodocus for his disappointing 5th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby, and I think that Smokey Image could press Danzing Moon enough to finish in the money. Maybe my bets today will bite me in the butt shortly, but I feel pretty confident about the 4-3-2 combo. None of the other horses really stood out to me, but you can read my detailed analysis in the attached file. If you're trying to wager with TwinspiresTV, it's not working for me either right now. You're not alone! With 15 minutes to post, did you bet on anyone in this field? Who and why? Updated results when they happen! ~Gallant Vixen
Race Results Gun Runner took the challenge of an additional sixteenth of a mile more than his previous races completely in stride, winning today's Louisiana Derby by several lengths over second place finisher Tom's Ready. In a photo finish for third, Dazzling Gem beat out Mo Tom seemingly by a nose. I'm back! With about 10 minutes to post, a quick run down through my bets for today's Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Win bets: Forevamo (11), Battery (3) Place bets: Gun Runner (1), Greenpointcrusader (2) Show bets: Dazzling Gem (9), Candy My Boy (5) Even though Forevamo didn't win the Risen Star, he came pretty close, and I think that his overall history make this more of a possibility for him. Battery has actually won at this distance recently, which is something that no one else on the field can say. Gun Runner of course gets a bet for winning the Risen Stakes, which was on the same track. Greenpointcrusader seems like a true crusader, and ran second to my favorite Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. Dazzling Gem has a great pedigree but also is undefeated right now and seems determined, plus has a good build with great hindquarters, which to me bodes well for increased distance and endurance. Finally, Candy My Boy is clearly a speed horse but he has successfully raced against Forevamo and put in a good bid in the Risen Star, so he got a $1 wild card show bet. For more detailed reasoning regarding the contenders' race records, pedigrees, and conformation, check out the downloadable file linked at the end of this post. As many of today's contenders are Risen Star Stakes 2016 alumni, I've attached a replay of that race below for your convenience!
Sometimes when handicapping you get a "deep" field- this means that the horses are all pretty talented and rather evenly matched. The field for today's race, however, was on the shallow side. I'm grateful for that, since having to decide who to bet on between 14 equally qualified horses would have been a disaster for me. And in an effort to try and actually turn a profit, having less horses to choose from was convenient. Although I anticipate that Kasseopia (2) will place or show, his odds are too good to really make money from. So while I think he could pull it off, my betting does not reflect that. Otherwise, I really like Diplodocus (10) and Frank Conversation (12) to come somewhere in the money. Diplodocus has actually won at 1 1/8th mile before, and Frank Conversation has proven himself recently at 1 1/16th mile on this very track in the California Derby. I placed show bets on Marqula (7) and Tusk (8) due to their experiences either with the track (Marqula) or similar distances (Tusk), plus a wild card show bet on Algenon (9) because I liked the way he looked before rider's up, and since he had come 3rd in the California Derby.
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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