Travers Debrief Well, it happened: American Pharoah had a bad day. Likely worn out from holding off Frosted, Keen Ice plowed past Pharoah in the final furlongs of the Travers Stakes. Today, the "graveyard" gets another champion. All that said, Keen Ice was a worthy winner. As I mentioned in my last post, out of all the horses in the field today, he's raced against and lost to Pharoah the most. Finally, he avenged himself. Early predictions indicate that Keen Ice's speed score for this race was a 106, which is pretty damn amazing. I'd also like to praise Jose Lezcano for his work with Frosted. I was hoping that Frosted would keep closer to Pharoah today and that's exactly what he did. Granted, Keen Ice foiled his plans, but a great run nonetheless. What's next for Pharoah? It's too soon to say, but the biggest question is whether Baffert will continue with the presumed plan to race him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup or just try and train him going into the Breeders' Cup Classic. On one hand, another race would likely take a lot out of him, especially when the Travers seems like it already may have. But on the other hand, only one horse has ever won the Breeders' Cup that didn't race at all in September or October, Invasor in 2006. Plus, a race like the Gold Cup would provide a good litmus test for how Pharoah might perform in the Breeders' Cup. Ball's in your court, Baffert. Lessons Learned in Handicapping My usual weakness in handicapping is exacta boxing, usually my two favorite horses. Today, I placed a $1 exacta bet on both American Pharoah-Frosted and Pharoah-Keen Ice combos, and then placed a win/place/show on Frosted, and a Place/Show on Keen Ice. I was determined not to fall into my usual trap. What I didn't anticipate, though, was that American Pharoah might come in second. This is where exacta boxing actually would have helped me. I paid $12 total on my bets today, and the Keen Ice-Pharoah $2 exacta payout was $66. If I had done a Keen Ice-Pharoah-Frosted trifecta, the payout was $180/$2. A win bet on Keen Ice alone paid $34. Going forward: I should still be judicious about exactas, but I think if I'm going to spend the dollar to place one exacta, I might as well spend a second to box it. Again though, I need to make sure I'm not just falling back on this, because while the payout is usually great, it only takes one horse's nostril to screw it up. I felt strongly enough about Keen Ice from the get-go to bet an exacta on him, meaning I thought he was definitely capable of coming in second- I felt the same about Frosted, but I also placed a win bet on Frosted. The next time I feel strongly enough about a contender to consider an exacta, I should place a win bet on them as well, unless it seems like they definitely have no chance of winning. In this case, I didn't feel that way about Keen Ice and I literally paid for it (although I "won" more than I lost today). All said and done, I'm pleased with the results of today's race. Sure, I feel bad that Pharoah suffered his first defeat since winning the Triple Crown, but I also have to applaud Frosted and Keen Ice for running a great race. Did you bet in the Travers? How did you fare? Do you think American Pharoah could handle another race before the Breeders' Cup? ~Gallant Vixen
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UPDATE: Just in time, here are my bets for tonight's race! Also, Frosted jockey Joel Rosario has been injured and Jose Lezcano will be subbing in. This isn't Lezcano's first sub-in on a tight race with a good horse- something similar happened with Wise Dan's usual jockey John Velazquez before the Breeders' Cup a few years ago, and Lezcano passed that test just fine. After more evaluation of the field, I think I'm going to mostly stick with my original thoughts. Win: American Pharoah (2) Current odds: 1-5 (as of 2:30pm EST) Why? Pharoah has just kept up fantastically. His run in the Haskell was like a walk in the park and it doesn't seem like he's lost any weight/muscle since the Belmont. He is a machine, and he's continuously improving. As a runner, I think he's grown a lot since the Derby, and because this field is smaller and his post position is closer to the rail, I think he'll have any even easier time taking home the cup. How? This field is rife with horses that prefer to stalk or close, so Pharoah is likely to stay just behind the frontrunner (as he did in the Haskell and Derby) or be the frontrunner (Preakness and Belmont). The more distance he can get between him and the closers in the beginning, the better. Place: Frosted (6) Current odds: 10-1 Why? I think this distance will be optimal for Frosted, although I'm not convinced that he has it in him to beat our golden boy, American Pharoah. Frosted and Pharoah have, in my opinion, the best conformation and race records coming into this race. How? What Frosted typically does that seems to work best for him is to run just outside of the main "bunch" of horses and then steadily move up closer to the frontrunners, making his main challenge as they come down the stretch. However, I wonder if he stayed a little bit ahead of the action if he might come even closer to Pharoah at the wire because he would have less ground to cover during his final drive. Show: Keen Ice (7) Current odds: 16-1 Why? Keen Ice has had the most major experience racing against Pharoah out of this entire field, and if the Haskell was any indication, he's getting better at it with each try. If his performance today is at all like the Haskell, I think he's definitely capable of showing at least. How? He'll probably hang back behind the main pack, trailing close to last, on the rail. His biggest challenge today will likely be navigating away from the rail to mount his challenge while coming down the stretch. In the Haskell, he seemed to meet a little resistance on this front with some other horses in his way. If he makes his move soon enough, he'll put on a burst of speed with urging to propel him forward in the final 1/8th of a mile or so. Show: Texas Red (4) Current odds: 5-1 Why? His win in the Jim Dandy Stakes was genuine, and he clearly had the power and speed to best Frosted at 1 1/8 mile. However, Frosted does better at longer distances and Keen Ice simply has more experience dealing with many in this crowd of horses. I'm definitely placing a place/show bet on him, but I'm still not so sure about his abilities to hold his own in this field. We'll see! How? He'll stalk the pace, keep his eyes on the frontrunners and then make a late, powerful drive. He'll likely have to face another duel with Frosted, and definitely Keen Ice. Wild cards:
But what about...
I will be posting a screenshot of my bets here closer to the race. Post time, by the way, is at 5:45pm. If you're interested, a copy of my full analysis into these contenders is available for download below. Some of it is very stream of conscious, but if you're curious to see how I evaluate them personally, have at it! ~Gallant Vixen
As many had anticipated he would, Zayat Stables announced on Sunday that American Pharoah would indeed be running in the Travers Stakes this coming weekend. Bob Baffert had previously stated that he was looking for any reason not to send Pharoah to Saratoga, a track that proudly hails itself as "the Graveyard of Champions." The term champions is not used loosely either: Man O' War, Gallant Fox, and even the great Secretariat suffered some of their most devastating- or only- losses at Saratoga. But let's take a look at the field before we assume that Pharoah will have it rough due to tradition alone. As of a few hours ago, post positions for the Travers are out. Included with the initial odds, they are:
I'll post a more detailed evaluation of the Travers contenders by Friday, but here are my thoughts so far:
What do you think of this year's Travers competitors? Can any of them beat American Pharoah? Who are your favorite longshots so far? ~Gallant Vixen |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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