Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) Lessons Learned On the bright side, I won more than I lost today. On the downside, I decided to spend $1 on a trifecta ticket since the odds were so tight for my three favorites, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy, and Exaggerator. Needless to say, that was a dollar I kissed goodbye for good. My initial instinct was to say that even though Diplodocus stayed in last for the duration of the race, I'm still hesitant to say that the bet was in poor taste. After all, not only had he won at this distance previously, but it was on turf. Solid choice then, right? But I realized I need to look at that sentence differently: he won at this distance previously, but it was on turf. I was attributing mental bonus points to the turf win since I know that turf requires more strength and endurance, without taking into consideration the possibility that he simply doesn't like dirt as much as turf. Even if he may physically be capable of a dirt win at this distance, he might not be mentally capable of the same.
Smokey Image was a fair bet, as far as I'm concerned. He was undefeated before the San Felipe, and it really seemed like he might have just drawn the short end of the stick in terms of his post position. Maybe it was the track surface today, but I also think that he just might not have been on the same level as the other frontrunners today. Regardless, even though my bet on him didn't pay off, I think my intuition that he would probably press and tire out Danzing Candy was correct. Where I went wrong betting today was my strategy. Not betting on Diplodocus would have saved me a dollar; not placing a trifecta also would have saved a dollar. And placing a win bet (in addition to place/show) on Exaggerator after discovering his prior experience with sloppy tracks would have won my some additional money. That said, I'm glad I went with my gut instinct to put a place bet on both Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy after hesitantly just doing win/show due to the $2 minimum for win/place/show type bets at Santa Anita. Another thing I feel pretty good about is the time it took me to handicap the race. I think previously I may have been spending too much time recapping race history and pedigree in the documents I type up. Only mentioning the relevant aspects of a horse's race record and interesting points of their pedigree really saved me time today. Additionally, I was already somewhat familiar with some of today's contenders from either the El Camino Real Derby or the Sham Stakes, so that also saved time. All in all, it was nice to have everything up and ready to go with 15 minutes left before post time, so I'm going to shoot for at least that before the Arkansas Derby next week.
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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