Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Post Position: 11 out of 20 Morning-line Odds: 8-1 Race RecordOne thing's for sure: if the track is sloppy on Saturday, Exaggerator will have a good race. After 9 starts, he's won 4, placed in 2, and showed in 1. His two most recent wins were the 8.5 furlong Delta Downs Jackpot in November and the 9 furlong Santa Anita Derby, videos of which are posted below. When I was handicapping the Santa Anita Derby, I noted that Exaggerator's win in the Delta Downs (pp. 9/10) was slim- a neck. And if you watch the video, you see that he runs mostly on the pace. While it was mostly effective for the win then, he displayed a lot of flexibility when he ran as a closer in the Santa Anita (pp. 2/8) and ended up over 6 lengths ahead of second place finisher Mor Spirit. How he'll choose to run at the Derby will be interesting, but it seems like he'll probably want to preserve his energy, so I would expect a light closing/stalking style. Coming out of the 11 hole, the concern is obviously that he'll get caught in traffic, either right out of the gate or later, when he wants to make a closing drive. As far as distance is concerned, as long as the pace is neither too fast nor slow, I think he can handle it. PedigreeCurlin x Dawn Raid, by Vindication. Curlin is a dynamo of racing: $10.5 million in race earnings, 11 wins in 16 starts over about 3 years, and 2007's Horse of the Year. Especially relevant here is that 5 out of Curlin's 11 wins came at distances of 10 furlongs (1 1/4 mile), just like the Derby. As far as sires go Curlin is a good one to have. He brings to the table sire Smart Strike, who is touted as "Mr. Prospector's leading all-weather sire." (It certainly seems like that "all weather" ability has passed to Exaggerator!) On his dam's side, Curlin's damsire is well-raced Canadian bred Deputy Minister. Dawn Raid has a great pedigree for a Derby hopeful's dam. Her sire Vindication is a son of the great Seattle Slew, and her damsire Bold Ruckus is a grandson of Secretariat sire Bold Ruler, via Boldnesian (also in Seattle Slew's sire line). ConformationOverall, I like what I see. He seems a little bit over at the knee on his right knee (more visible in the above picture of him), but otherwise he's very balanced. The angle of the below picture shows that his legs are correct. His shoulder is sloped nicely and his hind end is well-muscled. Pretty good forearm:cannon ratio. Deep girth, and not too wasp waisted for being so fit.
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Race Results Having raced over a sloppy track twice before, Exaggerator almost seemed to relish the track today as he ended up coasting to a win after an impressive closing drive. Not only did he win over near-tied favorites Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy by several lengths, he raced second to last for the first half of the race. Mor Spirit was a distant second, and himself followed closely behind by longshot Uncle Lino. Danzing Candy came in 4th, but he was clearly beat. Diplodocus seems to have brought up the rear for the entire race, which I suppose shouldn't surprise me. Smokey Image did put in a good effort and sort of pressed Danzing Candy, who took the early lead, but he just didn't have it in him to stay the distance. (Lessons learned after the jump!) |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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