With a little over a week since the Arkansas Derby (and the Lexington, although none of those finishers ultimately qualified for the Kentucky Derby), I figured I would go over its results, the final list of potential Kentucky Derby contenders, some info about them, and my updated point matrix. More after the jump!
Tapit son Creator came out on top in the Arkansas Derby, followed by Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, and Dazzling Gem, respectively. This finish launched him to 6th place on the Kentucky Derby's official leaderboard. Although my updated point matrix with its own leaderboard (based on a wide variety of factors best explained in the original "Where We're At" post) is attached above, here's a comparison of the final Derby leaderboard rankings and my own. As of today, all 26 horses are still potentials for the race.
Synthesizing the DataOther Fun FactsFinal Updates & Photos Post positions will add another layer of complexity to handicapping such a large, relatively deep field. Those will be announced on NBC Sports Network at 5:30pm EST on Wednesday, May 4th. The field has traditionally never been larger than 22 (1928), and usually hovers somewhere around 20 starters day-of in the most recent years. With 26 horses entered right now, the final six contenders (Fellowship, Adventist, Laoban, Dazzling Gem, Cherry Wine, and Discreetness) are on thin ice: it's unlikely that any of them will make the final cut unless one of the top 20 contenders is at some point before May 7th. I certainly wouldn't wish ill on any of these guys, but I'm really interested in Dazzling Gem and Cherry Wine as potential wild card bets. Dazzling Gem because he's one of only two contenders (with the other being Mohaymen) who has finished in the top 4 of a 1 1/8th mile race. Cherry Wine interests me because he came 4th in the 8.5 furlong Rebel Stakes, and then 3rd in the 9 furlong Bluegrass Stakes, which tells me that he's doing slightly better over longer distances. Below are some pictures from the Kentucky Derby Facebook page (all photo credits to Coady Photography, except photo of Mor Spirit by Heather Moreton Photography) of the contenders currently at Churchill Downs working out and taking stock of their new homes for the next couple weeks. You may have noticed that there are only 13 pictures in the slideshow above. Some of the horses just haven't had more formal pictures taken, and others are still in the process of being shipped to Churchill Downs or have just arrived recently.
In the days leading up to the Derby, I'll be publishing a series of "Contender Profiles" for each of the contenders, in order of my rankings of them. Stay tuned! Who's your favorite contender so far? Which of the final 6 contenders do you hope stays? Will you be tuning in for the post position draw? ~Gallant Vixen
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
Categories
All
|