Derby Rundown It's hard to believe that it's already been two weeks since the running of the Derby! In case you've forgotten, Nyquist, lived up to his status as a favorite and sailed to victory by a healthy length and a quarter. Behind him was Exaggerator, with over three lengths behind him to third place finisher Gun Runner, who himself was just a head ahead of Mohaymen. And finally, my long shot Suddenbreakingnews was just a nose behind Mohaymen, having closed insanely from almost last place to fifth! Preakness Predictions In brief: I think Nyquist can pull this off, but Exaggerator is definitely one to watch out for. I'm also betting on Cherry Wine to place or show, and Stradivari for the same. Wild card bets: Fellowship, Lani, and Laoban. Reasoning after the jump! 1) Cherry Wine (8: 2-1-2) Morning-Line Odds: 20-1 Jockey: Corey Lanerie Race Record: Cherry Wine was short-listed for the Derby but didn't make the final cut. However you might remember in my second "Where We're At" post that Cherry Wine was one of the horses that I hoped might somehow make it into the Derby due to the fact that he came 4th at 8.5 furlongs in the Rebel Stakes and then 3rd in the 9 furlong Bluegrass Stakes. By that math, he should come second in the Preakness, what with the additional 1/16th mile. Aside from the Rebel and the Bluegrass, Cherry Wine was successful in his two prior starts: his maiden and an allowance race, both 8.5 furlongs on dirt. But the maiden he broke was certainly not his first attempt- it was his fifth. He did better as the distance increased and when he switched to dirt from turf. Ultimately, his maiden was quite the spectacle, with him defeating the other contenders by 9 lengths. As far as his running style goes, he's a pretty traditional deep closer. The one caveat here is that his highest speed factor on Equibase is 98. But I think that if the frontrunners set a fast enough pace, he might have a shot down the stretch. Pedigree: Paddy O'Prado x C.S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song. Cherry Wine's sire, Paddy O'Prado was a fairly successful turf racer- all of his wins came in between 9 and 10 furlongs- who amassed over a million in earnings in his 14 starts. On its face, Paddy O'Prado's pedigree seems to hold most of its strength in his sire line: El Prado is the product of successful Northern Dancer son Sadlers Wells and Lady Capulet, a daughter of UK champion Sir Ivor. But his dam, Fun House, has good experience on the track and in the shed- she started 29 times, coming in the money 22 times, and is also the dam of champion filly Untapable. Damsire Prized himself was successful enough to have over $2 million in earnings. On his dam's side, Cherry Wine has double 5th generation Mr. Prospector. Unbridled's Song is by Fappiano son Unbridled and out of Caro daughter Trolley Song. The other instance of Mr. Prospector comes from C.S. Royce's dam's line, via Forty Niner. Conformation: There aren't many good pictures available, but he seems relatively well-conformed. Even though he's wearing wraps in most pictures, it seems like he has a good forearm to cannon ratio. Deep girth with good space behind the elbow. Balanced shoulder and hip with good muscling on both. His neck seems to be a decent length. The only things I wonder about are his hooves and his hocks, since they aren't really easy to assess from the pictures, but it seems in some pictures like he might be a bit sickle-hocked. Otherwise though, pretty good conformation. 2) Uncle Lino (7: 2-2-2) Morning-Line Odds: 20-1 Jockey: Fernando Perez (same as last start) Race Record: The last time we heard from Uncle Lino, he had just come 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, behind Mor Spirit and far behind Exaggerator. Since then, he's won the fairly new California Chrome Stakes at Los Alamitos, which is 8.5 furlongs. He won by half a length, but in the process set a new track record for 8.5 furlong races at Los Alamitos. Today, I think we can expect for Uncle Lino to be one of the frontrunners; past experience shows that he tends to fade a little. While he was able to pull a show in the Santa Anita Derby, at 9 furlongs, there are other horses in today's field that seem like they can best him there. Pedigree: Uncle Mo x Haysee, by Orientate. For a good description of what Uncle Mo brings to pedigrees as a sire, check out the pedigree section of Nyquist's KY Derby contender profile. While Haysee was unraced, her sire Orientate was a champion sprinter, suggesting how Uncle Lino may have gotten his speed. Orientate himself is a grandson of French-bred champion Blushing Groom. Haysee's dam Oatsee is a daughter of Unbridled. The only instance of inbreeding is two occurrences of Roberto, a champion UK 3-year-old of his time, once on either side. Conformation: He's a pretty well-conformed horse. His hind legs look very correct, although the angles on his hindquarter look somewhat oblong. His shoulder looks a bit upright too, and his left leg looks a little back at the knee. Otherwise pretty good elsewhere. 3) Nyquist (8: 8-0-0) Morning-Line Odds: 3-5 Jockey: Mario Gutierrez (same as last start) Derby Performance: For a description of Nyquist's race record going into the Derby, as well as an analysis of his pedigree and conformation, check out his Derby contender profile. Since that's all been previously described, I'm just going to discuss his Derby performance. With a fast cruising speed, this Derby was not much of a trial for Nyquist. He broke clean and headed out onto the rail, where he sat in second or third until he needed to kick away down the stretch. Exaggerator seemed to get pretty close, but at the same time you almost got the sense that Nyquist wasn't really exerting himself a ton. With Nyquist, I worry more about the Belmont than how he might handle today- all his other wins came under 10 furlongs, so unless he gets bested by a very fast closer, I think he's probably good to win or at the very least place. Coming from the 3rd post position today is good for him as well, since he'll have less distance to travel out the gate to the rail. 4) Awesome Speed (6: 4-0-0) Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 Jockey: Jevian Toledo (same as last start) Race Record: Awesome Speed broke into the Preakness with a technical win (since the actual first place finisher was disqualified) in the 9 furlong Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park in early April. In that race, he preferred to stay toward the middle of the pack until attempting a semi-closing drive down the stretch, finishing just a nose behind soon-to-be disqualified first place finisher Governor Malibu. The question here becomes whether Awesome Speed will do better with a slightly increased distance or if he'll fade away. Before the Tesio, he finished 4th in the 8.5 furlong Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, behind both Mohaymen and Fellowship, with race notes indicating that he simply "lacked the necessary closing response." Further in the past, he won his second attempt at breaking his maiden and then two more stakes races. The maiden he broke was 6 furlongs, as was the following race, with the third being a mile. Without going into further detail, I think it's fair to say that Awesome Speed's speed probably won't be awesome enough to finish in the money today. Pedigree: Awesome Again x Speedy Escape, by Aptitude. Awesome Again is a Breeders' Cup winner from pretty standard stock. His sire is the well-known Deputy Minister, a grandson of Northern Dancer. Awesome Again's dam is by Blushing Groom and out of a Mr. Prospector daughter. Awesome Speed's dam's pedigree is even better: Aptitude is a son of A.P. Indy and out of a Northern Dancer dam. Speedy Escape's dam, Great Escape, also has ties back to Bold Ruler son Bold Bidder and In Reality. Conformation: From the pictures available, this is clearly a beautiful horse. He's muscular, alert, and looks to be a good mover. However, good conformation is not what makes a winner, only bolsters one. 5) Exaggerator (10: 4-3-1) Morning-Line Odds: 3-1 Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (same as last start) Derby Performance: For a description of Exaggerator's race record going into the Derby, as well as an analysis of his pedigree and conformation, check out his Derby contender profile. Since that's all been previously described, I'm just going to discuss his Derby performance and how that relates to his potential performance in today's Preakness. In the Derby, he broke clean and just cruised for a while in 15th place out of 20 total starters. It wasn't until the 1 mile pole that he first started to make his move, inching up to eventually be in 3rd heading into the stretch and speeding up to miss with win by just a length and a quarter. Definitely working in Exaggerator's favor today is the track: the Santa Anita Derby was also a very sloppy track and he clearly relished it. Nyquist, on the other hand, has not raced on a surface this wet before, so this does seem like it might give Exaggerator a slight edge. Not to mention the fact that Exaggerator has now lost to Nyquist several times- on one hand, is it too late for a "grudge match" or is now the perfect time, distance, and track? I guess we'll find out, but Exaggerator is definitely one worth betting on today. 6) Lani (7: 3-1-0) Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 Jockey: Yutaka Take (same as last start) Race Record: These UAE Derby winners always seem attractive bets at first, especially for the Preakness since it's the same length as the UAE Derby. So far, however, no horse has been able to win both. Despite being Kentucky-bred, all of Lani's starts aside from the KY Derby and the UAE Derby were in Japan. These races ranged in length, but it appears that the UAE Derby was the longest he won. In the stateside capital-D Derby, he was plagued by the traffic of 20 other contenders and seems to have gotten stuck in the middle bunch, never able to close fully and finishing in 9th place. Today, he is once again in the middle of the field and it's unclear whether he has the speed to best some of the other very talented contenders. Pedigree: Tapit x Heavenly Romance (JPN), by Sunday Silence. Tapit, of course, brings to the table A.P. Indy and Mr. Prospector via Pulpit and his dam, and Unbridled and Nijinsky via dam Tap Your Heels and her dam, Ruby Slippers. Sunday Silence, Lani's damsire, won the Derby, Preakness, and Breeders' Cup among other major graded stakes races in the US. His power likely came from sire Halo, by Hail to Reason and out of Cosmah. Heavenly Romance's pedigree also shows some strength on her dam's side: First Act is a daughter of Sadlers Wells, by Northern Dancer. Conformation: I don't know that I would call him petite, since he seems to be average in height, but there is some sort of economy to Lani's build. What I mean by that is there's not much extra. He's trim and lean, with just the amount of muscling necessary to get him where he needs to go. He's balanced, and seems to have good general conformation. Frankly, there isn't really anything that I can see from the available pictures to really give me pause. 7) Collected (6: 4-1-0) Morning-Line Odds: 10-1 Jockey: Javier Castellano (same as last start) Race Record: Collected's name came up a few times in my handicapping for the KY Derby prep races, and he most recently won the final race in the prep series, the 8.5 furlong Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, but it didn't garner him enough points to gain entry into the Derby. In that race, he ran just behind the frontrunner before breaking away to a 4 length victory. Before that, he was also successful in the 9 furlong Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes as a frontrunner. Today is Collected's first Grade I attempt though, meaning he's never really raced against horses of this caliber before. While the distance may have been possible for him in other races, I'm not entirely sure about today. Pedigree: City Zip x Helena Bay, by Johannesburg. Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Hawaii, and Runaway Bride all appear twice in the 5 generations for Collected’s pedigree available on Pedigree Query. With the exception of Northern Dancer, who is confined to just the dam’s side, each other horse appears once on each side. Mr. Prospector’s most recent appearance is as the sire to Carson City, who in turn sired City Zip. With the exception of that iteration of Mr. P, all other inbreeding is relegated to the 5th generation. Sneakily hidden in Collected’s dam side is Storm Cat (and thus, further back, Secretariat), through Johannesburg’s sire Hennessy. Helena Bay (ironically a chestnut) was born in England and raced a bit in Canada; her dam, Josette, is Irish bred. Conformation: He's a strong looking horse for sure. He's wide in the front with an equally large shoulder; I can't tell for sure whether his hindquarters are equal in size too. His forearm is nice and long in comparison to the cannon, which is good. For his bulk, his hooves look to be on the smaller size. 8) Laoban (5: 0-2-1) Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 Jockey: Florent Geroux (different from last start) Race Record: Based on his pedigree and formidable build, I had high hopes for Laoban at increased distances. That said, his most recent performance, in the Bluegrass Stakes, was lackluster. He started out frontrunning, as he prefers, but eventually faded back to 4th place, being defeated by fellow Preakness contender Cherry Wine for 3rd place. I look to him today to set the early speed, along with Uncle Lino and Collected, but I don't know that he will be able to hold his own against the rest of this impressive field. Pedigree: Uncle Mo x Chattertown, by Speightstown. At first glance, this pedigree is nothing spectacular, but when you look further back in it, it gets a little interesting. Uncle Mo is a son of Indian Charlie, who himself can trace his sireline back to Caro. Uncle Mo’s damsire, Arch, can trace his sire line back to Danzig. But it’s Chattertown’s pedigree that really shines to me: Speightstown is a product of Gone West and a Storm Cat daughter, Silken Cat. So there’s Secretariat in Laoban’s 5th and 6th generation from Speightstown. But then, Secretariat pops up in his 5th generation again due to Chattertown’s damsire, Lost Soldier, who is a son of Danzig and a lesser-known Secretariat daughter, Lady Winborne. Conformation: Gigantic and reminiscent of Dortmund. 9) Abiding Star (11: 5-1-1) Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 Jockey: J.D. Acosta (same as last start) Race Record: On his 7th try, he finally broke his maiden, at 7 furlongs. After that, he's been undefeated. His most recent start (and win) was the Parx Derby, which was a mile and 70 yards. His longest win was at 8.5 furlongs. I don't really see any good reasons to bet on this guy today. Pedigree: Uncle Mo x Abiding, by Dynaformer. Dynaformer brings champion Roberto to the table here, and Abiding's dam is a Dixieland Band daughter. Conformation: While his hind end is well-muscled, it seems like it's dwarfed slightly by his shoulder. 10) Fellowship (12: 2-3-3) Morning-Line Odds: 30-1 Jockey: Jose Lezcano (same as last start) Race Record: When I first started handicapping the Derby, Fellowship stood out because he had the most starts out of any of the other contenders. Despite the fact that he finished in 4th place in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, he came in the money in the Florida Derby, ahead of fellow closer and heavier favorite Mohaymen. I think that given the additional 1/16th mile, he can probable do good again, but it's far from a sure thing. Pedigree: Awesome of Course x Go Girlfriend Go, by Demidoff. Awesome of Course is a son of Awesome Again, Awesome Speed's sire. Awesome of Course's dam, Mais Oui, is a daughter of Northern Dancer son Lyphard and of a daughter of Affirmed. Demidoff's dam, Secrettame, is by Secretariat. Conformation: Balanced and long, with a great slopey shoulder. 11) Stradivari (3: 2-0-0) Morning-Line Odds: 8-1 Jockey: John Velazquez Race Record: Being the last horse, he's thus getting the short end of my analysis stick. With just a few minutes before they're all in the gate, I'll just say that Stradivari's last win was at 9 furlongs and he won it by over 14 lengths! As impressive as that is, he's not among allowance company today, but he can clearly handle himself at a distance. Thus, place/show. Pedigree: Medaglia d'Oro x Bending Strings, by American Chance. Medaglia d'Oro's sire is El Prado, Cherry Wine's sire. American Chance's damsire is Seattle Slew! Conformation: Well muscled in a way that suggests he can maintain himself over distance while also being impressively speedy. Cannons appear short, and girth deep.
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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