Earlier, I turned to my roommate and proudly asked "So guess what I did??" "Made a spreadsheet?" she responded. She knows me very well, since that's exactly what I did. In an almost unprecedented level of preparedness, I've finished my annual Derby contender point matrix a week early. Analysis, discussion, and charts (!!) after the jump!
What I've got so far is attached above. Even though I made and completed one of these last year, I didn't end up posting it in advance of the race because it was so down to the wire. So to recap: the purpose of this insane spreadsheet is to quantify and "reward" contenders for the things that I like to see- finishing ahead of other contenders, decent pedigrees, homefield advantage, etc. When I first did this in 2016, my own leaderboard correctly predicted Nyquist's win. However, I'm not sure this year's matrix is going to turn out to be quite as accurate. I'll elaborate after we go through the leaderboard data. Note: since I started this so early, there are a handful of horses below that are most likely not even going to be "on deck" after post positions are pulled. We'll get a better idea what the actual field will look like in a few more days.
The Numbers FallacyI won't lie: I love numbers. I hate math, but in my own way, I also revere it. "Math is going to tell me who'll win the Derby," I told my roommate earlier today. Hiding behind numbers and formulas is comforting to me, but this sense of security is misplaced. It could just be that I need to alter the way that I calculate points, but I also think that the beauty of horse racing is that it can always be a little bit unpredictable. Granted, there are legitimate, trackable statistics in this industry, but to rely on them as a sole method for handicapping is fallacious. Let's take a look at the horse that my own matrix boosted as essentially the most promising contender: Bolt d'Oro (pictured above). He definitely garnered a good deal of extra points in some early races, where he finished several lengths ahead of other horses. He also has the highest scoring sire and dam combination, as well as fairly high career earnings. These are all good things, but one thing that I think is vital to see in a Derby contender is that they improve their performance as races increase in distance and difficulty (in terms of both weight carried and the horses they're up against being of a similar or higher caliber)- either they should be going from placing/showing in earlier, shorter races to winning/placing in longer ones, or they should be winning consistently. With Bolt d'Oro though, we have the opposite model: a horse who was winning 8.5f races (with the exception of the more prestigious Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which he showed in) but then only placed in the 9 furlong Santa Anita Derby, at least 3 lengths behind winner Justify. His conformation is decent, but looking at him doesn't necessarily make me think "THIS horse" (which is more or less how I felt about I'll Have Another). To be clear, I'm not saying Bolt d'Oro is a poor contender. On the contrary, he has a great pedigree for the Derby and the highest high speed factor (118) in the whole field. But is he truly the best contender by my own stated criteria? I don't think so. Well then, who is one of the best contenders by my own criteria? Initially, I was going to make a case for Flameaway. I love how he kind of resembles Man O' War, and it seemed like maybe he was working up the speed to be able to pull home in the Derby. But then I watched his performance in the Blue Grass against fellow contender and winner Good Magic, and rethought that- he's a frontrunner who got tired. Then I was going to toot Vino Rosso's horn. Which, honestly, I haven't really changed my mind about. Vino Rosso is a Curlin son (love those short pasterns!) who is definitely improving over distance. His run and win in the Wood Memorial was impressive and he looks like he has plenty of spirit. But in searching for a decent conformation shot of Vino Rosso, I discovered that he and Justify come from the same breeder. While Vino Rosso has decent conformation, Justify has those hindquarters that I love to see. So I began to think that maybe I would spin some kind of "Tale of Two Paddockmates" narrative. Looking deeper into Justify's race record though, and watching his run in the Santa Anita Derby, I decided against it. Yes, Justify is undefeated. But that's in 3 starts, including his 7f maiden and a mile-long allowance race, all of which have been at Santa Anita. Even his style of galloping just seems a little too ambling for the Kentucky Derby. "Ambling" might not really be the right phrase, but if you watch he just seems almost casual, yet his victory wasn't exactly guaranteed going down the stretch. Now, like I was saying above, I have a tendency to get all wrapped up in my spreadsheets and cold hard calculations. That's why I'm glad that I ended up watching what happened at this year's UAE Derby. Mendelssohn. Holy crap. When I put together my matrix originally, I had just used the 100-40-20 figures from the Road to the Kentucky Derby page since Meydan doesn't publish on Equibase. I'm so, so thankful that I watched this and was able to add 15 points to Mendelssohn's score. So I started looking more into his record: he's raced successfully in the US before, winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf handily. It's also worth noting that despite his jetsetting career, Mendelssohn was bred and born in Kentucky. Then there's the matter of his conformation: Even as a yearling (and a May baby, no less), he's gorgeous. Slightly butt high, which is pretty common in yearlings, but otherwise just really balanced with phenomenal looking legs. He also has some promising family ties: his half-sister through his dam is Beholder, a 4 time Eclipse award winner. Historically, while the winner of the 9.5f UAE Derby usually qualifies for the Kentucky Derby, that winner has never won it. But there's a first time for everything, right? Mendelssohn has already proven that he can handle being shipped between 3 continents (including North America) and win on turf or sand, against fields stacked with other prestigiously-bred horses. And that's all before his 3rd birthday! This is a fairly deep field by my own standards, but I feel excited about this horse and his chances. Obviously post positions (which will be drawn this Tuesday!) may change my opinions substantially, and I do still like Vino Rosso to at least show, but Mendelssohn is the proverbial horse of the hour for me. Now... CHARTS!!!Unlike the last few years, this year's running of the Kentucky Derby won't feature any of those silver-haired sprinters that the bettors so love. No greys! The fact that the bays make up such a larger proportion shouldn't be a surprise- they are, give or take, the most common coat color in general. Fun fact: a Louisiana-bred horse has never won the Kentucky Derby! Givemeaminit, if he makes the final cut, hopes to be the first! But he would be a very, very long-shot, so odds are that 2018 will not see the first one! Final ThoughtsI'm sure if you made it this far, you may have been waiting for me to address the elephant in the room (or perhaps magnum in the moon): the current highest earner of points on the Road to the Derby. Orb and California Chrome were both the highest earners, but I'm just not convinced that Magnum Moon is on their level. His last two wins were both at Oaklawn and he's exclusively raced hours south of Kentucky. Granted, I could maybe see him coming out somewhere in the superfecta, but he's no Mendelssohn.
Who are your early favorites to win the Derby? Am I going to eat my words? Does Flameaway not resemble his distant ancestor Man O' War? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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