With post positions finalized, fresh odds, and more investigation, I've got more to say about [arguably] the biggest race of the year! Most remarkably, the track conditions are essentially the opposite of those in the above picture, so that's definitely a factor in how things might play out today. Click that 'Read More' button to do just that! Our Field
(odds current as of approximately 3:30pm EST) The Mud FactorAs I type this up, Jefferson County in Kentucky is under a flash flood warning. So that should give you an idea of what the track conditions are like now. The current forecast seems to show downpours continuing for the next couple hours, and downgrading to "showers" by about post time. This changes things! The vast majority of Road to the Derby races were run on tracks rated "fast;" only two were "muddy." The muddy races were the Jerome at Aqueduct (8f) and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn (8.5f). Firenze Fire, the longshot coming out of the 1 hole today, won the Jerome and was the only of today's contenders to finish in the money then (pp. 5/6). My Boy Jack won the Southwest (pp. 1/10), followed by Combatant (pp. 9/10). That said, other horses splashing across the field today have ran in mud before too, just in races that weren't Derby qualifying races: Flameaway, that Man o'War lookalike that I still like even though I probably shouldn't, has actually won two minor races on a wet or muddy track. Coming from the 4th post position, he's in a pretty good spot if he breaks well to get out ahead of the pack and stay on or near the rail. I still don't necessarily think he has the stamina to win, but I think he's one to keep an eye on to show. Justify, a horse that I have complicated feelings about, won by 6 1/2 lengths in his second start, a mile-long allowance race. More on him later though... Lone Sailor broke his maiden on his second try in a 7f race at Saratoga (pp. 8/9) by 11 lengths on a sloppy track. With odds hovering around 26-1, he could definitely be worth the show bet, maybe even a place. Also breaking his maiden on a sloppy track at Saratoga: Enticed. He broke it on his first try, but to put a damper on things, it was 6 furlongs and he won it by just under 2 lengths (pp. 1/8). Though he did come second to one of my favorites, Vino Rosso, in the Wood Memorial, he was a few lengths behind him after running in second the whole race. In the ~hour it took me to look into all the above, the rain has already stopped in Louisville, so we'll see how muddy the track really is when they're getting into the gate. The Curse of Apollo?For those of you who haven't heard of it, the "Curse of Apollo" is what is apparently responsible for the fact that no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby as an unraced 2-year-old. You can probably tell by my tone that I think this is a load of bull. The real reason, in my opinion, that unraced 2-year-olds have been so unsuccessful in the Derby is that this is the longest race that contenders run as 3-year-olds and it obviously helps for them to have started younger and building endurance. So let's talk about Justify some more. What does he have going for him? Sure, he's undefeated and he seems pretty fast, but what really stands out about him to me is his conformation. As Bob Baffert described him, "He's just a monster." (paraphrasing). He reminds me a lot of Frosted, another horse with lots of dense musculature and especially beefy hindquarters. He's just a big, powerful red horse. And I don't mean that "just" to be diminutive: Justify is a horse that I can see being a real threat in other Triple Crown races, and potentially the Breeders' Cup in the fall. But the list of reasons that I don't think he's worth a bet isn't insignificant...
Going Over Last Week's PredictionsLast week, Vino Rosso and Mendelssohn were two of my favorites, with Mendelssohn by far being my 1st favorite. Outside of the horses who are [most likely] deservedly longshots today, there were a couple that I didn't really address: Good Magic and Audible. After re-watching Good Magic's trip in the Blue Grass, I remember why I didn't really see it fit to bring him up: he came from the mid-pack to close things up, but he needed a lot of urging and it's unclear whether he would have been able to hold Flameaway off much more than he did (1 length). For your review: So ultimately, although Good Magic does have a pretty good post position today, I don't know if he's going to fare well both in the mud and with the mid-pack being the way it is. Audible... I can't really make my mind up about this guy. For one, he's very cute: I want to like Audible. He's cute, he's got good conformation, he's got a decent pedigree, and he's come in the money in all of his starts, with most of them being wins. But I just watch and re-watch his run in the Florida Derby and I'm just. not. feeling. it. As you can see, he broke pretty well and got up near the front, but then fell back. Far back. But then, with plenty of urging, he was able to make his run and win by about 2 lengths. Hofburg, who I admittedly have not given the time of day, seemed like he may have been gaining enough speed to catch up to him if he had another hundred feet or two. Now, Audible is coming from the 5 hole, which is a pretty good spot for the type of running he likes, so maybe put a place/show on him if you're feeling what I'm not.
What about my ol' faves, Mendelssohn and Vino Rosso? I still kind of like VR, because we've seen him find his second gear in the Wood Memorial. I think as long as he doesn't try and cut in to the rail from the 18th post, he could definitely have a chance to come in the money. I think Mendy is in a pretty good spot here, so the only unknown is how well he'll handle the wet surface and how well he'll break. I think my ideal finish order would be Mendelssohn, Vino Rosso, Flameaway. But the trouble of this field is that there are like 10 horses that seem to all plausible shots at winning, and then 10 more who could surprise us and still finish in the money. We're gonna find out soon! Who are you betting on in this year's Derby? What would you give to travel to Aiden O'Brien's Ballydoyle Stables? Who do you think the cutest Derby horse is? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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