Obviously, we're living in strange times.Of all the years for the Kentucky Derby to get rescheduled, what are the odds that it would be the year that I was scheduled to go to Kentucky for it, including watching the Oaks live? I will continue to monitor and update my points matrices for both the Derby and the Oaks through the summer, but in the meantime, the folks over at Churchill Downs have cooked up something equally historic for us: the Triple Crown Showdown. Read more about my thoughts on handicapping a virtual race after the jump! Perhaps you've wondered what would happen if all the Triple Crown winners were racing against each other and each other only in the Kentucky Derby. Obviously winning the Triple Crown is a feat (except maybe for Sir Barton, more on that later), but there's no question that some Triple Crown winners are better than others. Secretariat and Affirmed, for example, had to deal with almost-as-good competitors in Sham and Alydar, respectively. Some had the opposite problem, dealing with relatively weak fields (I would argue Justify falls into this category, honestly). Well now, maybe we'll have an answer provided by the advances of technology. Obviously, the downside here is that these horses are virtually racing against each other based mostly on the metrics from their historical races, which spanned 99 years of track footings and drug regulations. It's possible that if Secretariat and American Pharoah were to have run the 2015 Belmont Stakes together that AP would have won due to a larger stride length and possibly more stringent drug testing on race day. However, Secretariat's odds are predictably formidable. After all, he did set a track record for the fastest Derby ever run, which stands to this day. Unfortunately for someone like me who finds trying to predict and bet on place and show the most challenging and fun, you can only choose (but not bet on) a winner for today's Showdown. If you are correct, you will be entered into a sweepstakes to win an Ultimate Derby Experience package when the Derby does eventually happen. The people putting together the virtual race, Inspired Entertainment, Inc., used the following data to develop "fundamental probabilities" that impact the outcome of the race coupled with some random number generation: To determine the probability of each contender winning the race, select officials from Churchill Downs analyzed the historical past performance of each Triple Crown winner and incorporated the opinions of distinguished horse racing experts who evaluated each contender’s achievements and put them into historical perspective. I'm certainly not a distinguished horse racing expert, but let's look at the core data we have about the Kentucky Derbies (very weird to see that plural) these horses have run:
*In 1919, the Preakness was only 1 and 1/8th miles, and the Belmont was only 1 and 3/8th miles. Important to note: for running styles I mostly based off of what was described for each Kentucky Derby. There are definitely some variations that we know about with certain horses in terms of their preferences and abilities- Seattle Slew and American Pharoah specifically hit some traffic in their runnings of the Derby that required them to either stalk or press the pacesetters/frontrunners, but they are certainly comfortable frontrunning themselves.
Another interesting factor to note is that the track of the virtual race will be rated good. This means we need to consider that the timing for horses running heavy, slow, or sloppy tracks would likely be slightly better on a fast track. Today's "race" is being run with the horses in the post positions as follows:
Interestingly, two of these horses have actually raced against each other: Seattle Slew and Affirmed, due to being only a year apart in age. They met twice, although only one race truly lived up to its intention as a match race- the 1978 9f Marlboro Cup at Belmont. Affirmed put in a good effort, but Seattle Slew had it the whole time even though when he ran the Derby, the pace was slower than it was with Affirmed. So how do I see this virtual race playing out? Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Sir Barton are going to take the early lead, although Sir Barton will fade into the pack by at least the 1/2 pole. American Pharoah will be a few lengths off the pace, but ahead of the main bunch. Being in the 1 post position but generally preferring to stalk or press the pace, I think Affirmed may actually get bunched up or closed out at the wire. Similarly, I think that coming out of the two outside positions is going to present a bit of a challenge for Omaha and Justify, and I don't think either of them will be able to keep up with the early speed of Secretariat and Seattle Slew, although Justify may hold on a little longer. Whirlaway is a noted closer, but again, I don't think he'll be able to cover the distance that Seattle Slew and Secretariat (truly, a dream duel) are going to set. Gallant Fox has the honor of having pulled his original #7 post position, but despite running on a good track, he still has a pretty slow time. Unfortunately for my namesake, I don't see him finishing anywhere near the money. Who does this leave us? War Admiral, Count Fleet, Citation, and Assault. Although Assault is also coming from a very close post position to his original #3, the winning time of 2:06.6, even if we shave off two seconds to compensate for the slow track conditions, isn't going to be up to par. While he may be up or near Affirmed initially, he won't put up much of a fight (pun fully intended). War Admiral had the benefit of being a frontrunner in the #1 post position in 1937, but now will be coming wide initially, which is going to cost him the time he needs to put up a strong challenge to the other frontrunners. Count Fleet may make it to the bunch off the pace, but I expect he will probably do worse than Justify considering his "fast" winning time is barely faster than Justify's "sloppy" winning time. Finally, Jockey Eddie Arcaro has the honor of virtually riding both Whirlaway and Citation in this race, as he did in real life; when asked which horse he thinks would beat the other, he was quoted as saying that Citation could race against Whirlaway while carrying two riders and still win. I think we will see Citation keeping pace with American Pharoah, but (and let's be clear that I'm probably biased because AP is one of only two Triple Crown winners whose races I've watched live) I think American Pharoah will pull away. Ultimately, with these post positions, I can't see Secretariat not winning. I think Seattle Slew or American Pharoah will be second or third, with either Citation or Affirmed taking 4th, depending on the latter's ability to make his way through the bunch that may accumulate ahead of him on the rail. Who do you see winning the Triple Crown Showdown? Are you secretly hoping for a virtual upset? Does the change of date for the Oaks and Derby present additional opportunities for you? "Post" is in a little under an hour, so I guess we'll see who the best of the best is soon! ~Gallant Vixen
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11/5/2022 08:36:41 pm
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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