Authentic very nearly could not be held back on Saturday. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke barely had to ask him the question before he broke away from the back enthusiastically, needing very little urging down the stretch. It was quite a sight to behold, and to be honest I think we all know that I had imagined Azul Coast pulling off the win in similar fashion. I had made my exactas true, straight exactas, not thinking that Authentic had the win in him, but instead it was Azul Coast who came in second place. So what went wrong? I think I know. Watch the race replay: In his one mile maiden, Azul Coast had raced as a deep closer who came wide around the far turn before barreling down the stretch; he didn't spend much or any time on the rail. So when I saw him go right to the rail in the Sham, I immediately panicked. Sure enough, you can see that he got pretty boxed in there and could never make a very effective move since Zimba Warrior and Taishan (3rd and 4th finishers, respectively) were always there. Notably, it was actually Drayden Van Dyke, not Joel Rosario, who rode Azul Coast in his last race.
Will Authentic be the next Kentucky Derby winner? Only time can tell, but I actually still like Azul Coast a little more for that. He just needs to avoid getting boxed in on the rail during future races so that he can get enough points to qualify for the Derby. But Azul Coast's pedigree is more stamina oriented than Authentic's is. Clearly Authentic has speed and guts, but this race was a mile, and he'd have to keep this level of energy for an additional quarter mile. Overall, I'm pretty pleased with how my return to handicapping has gone. Did I make any money? No, I totally broke even on the $16 I bet, haha. But my overall feel for which horses were the strongest was spot on, even if I didn't get the order right. Lessons learned: spend the extra $2 to do the exacta box and pay attention to jockey changes. Did you bet on this race? How did you do? Who are your favorite Derby contenders so far? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
May 2020
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