The FrontRunner and Awesome Again Stakes might be back-to-back features at Santa Anita tonight (post times at 6:04pm and 6:37pm EST, respectively), but the contenders in each race couldn't be more different. The FrontRunner is one of the earlier serious Kentucky Derby prep races (as well as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile), whereas the Awesome Again Stakes is a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Basically, the FrontRunner contenders are Class of 2018 and the Awesome Again contenders are largely from the Class of 2014. All that said, due to time constraints, I'm only going to seriously evaluate the contenders for the FrontRunner, although I will give my general thoughts on the Awesome Again before post. More info after the jump! The FrontRunner is a 8.5f (1 1/16th mile) race with a lot of new faces and interesting names. As fun as it is to research new horses, the tricky part of handicapping these early Derby prep races is the relative lack of experience a lot of the contenders have.
The Contenders (in order of post position) 1) Gormley (8-1) Jockey: Victor Espinoza (same as last start) Race Record: A classic example of why these races are hard to handicap: Gormley's last and only start was when he broke his 6.5f maiden at Del Mar one month ago. He seems to have started well, breaking from post position 8 (out of 11) and heading straight to the lead. He initially dueled Dr. Troutman, but then took the lead again before the stretch, ultimately winning over second place Red Kite by a little over 4 lengths. Pedigree: Malibu Moon x Race to Urga, by Bernstein. This is a pretty standard Triple Crown pedigree- Malibu Moon is a son of AP Indy, out of a Mr. Prospector daughter; Bernstein is by Storm Cat and out of a daughter of Affirmed. Race to Urga's maternal line goes back to Kingmambo, a Mr. Prospector son who won several prolific Grand Prix races in France. Also on Gormley's dam's side is Strawberry Road, the Australian stallion who amassed over $1.7 million in winnings over 45 starts and 17 wins. As far as inbreeding goes, Gormley has Mr. Prospector and Secretariat once on each side, in generations 3 & 4 and 4 & 5, respectively. Conformation: Another casualty of handicapping horses this early in their racing careers is that there are often little to no pictures of them to use to judge conformation, and Gormley falls cleanly into the latter category. Final Thoughts: Gormley is owned by Ann and Jerry Moss, better known in the racing industry as the owners of champion mare Zenyatta and 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, and trained by John Shirreffs, who also trained those horses. Shirreffs is well known for only racing horses when he believes they are truly ready for it, and training them carefully over time. So while I might ordinarily look at a horse who only has a 6.5f win one month ago in his record and think this is going to be too much of a stretch, the fact that Shirreffs believed in Gormley enough to enter him in this race says a lot to me. While I'm not sure that he can necessarily pull off a win, I think he's a safe show bet. 2) Plum Dandy (6-1) Jockey: Mike Smith (different from last start) Race Record: Plum Dandy has two races under his belt, the last one of which was a win. He first attempted to break his maiden in a 6.5f MSW at Del Mar in early August (pp. 1/9), but came a disappointing 8th in a field of 9 after trying to save up for some sort of closing drive. A few weeks later, he raced again at Del Mar, but this time in a one mile MSW (pp. 1/8). After staying on the pace, he took the lead after the half pole, eventually putting over 2 lengths between him and second and third place finishers Term of Art and Vibe. Pedigree: Medaglia d'Oro x In Secure, by AP Indy. I love this pedigree- Medaglia d'Oro brings a lot of old school class to the table and In Secure, brings the greats (Seattle Slew, Deputy Minister, Secretariat, Alydar), largely through her sire. Also, no Mr. Prospector! Not that there's anything wrong with him, but it is refreshing not to see him within 5 generations. The only inbreeding is Northern Dancer (Medaglia d'Oro has a direct sire line to him) once on either side, as well as Tom Fool once on either side in the 5th generation. Conformation: No pictures of this dandy guy either. Final Thoughts: This is actually a very helpful race record in that it shows that Plum Dandy prefers distance. In winning his second maiden attempt at just a half furlong shorter than this race, including over fellow contender Vibe, he seems like a good pick for this distance. 3) Secret House (20-1) Jockey: Santiago Gonzalez (same as last start) Race Record: The third horse in the gate has three races behind him. However, so far he seems to be going backwards in terms of what I'd like to see- he won his first racing attempt, but has gotten worse since then, placing 4th in his second race and then 5th in his most recent start. That most recent race was the 6.5f Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar in mid-August, which Klimt won. Secret House came 5th out of 6th, never really making a solid run for it. The first race was 4.5f, and the second race was 5.5f. This is a clear pattern of fading as distance increases. Pedigree: Tiznow x Mega Dream, by Medaglia d'Oro. Holy Northern Dancer! Thankfully though, all 4 instances of him are confined to Secret House's 5th generation. Still... Aside from Medaglia d'Oro's contributions, the only other notable aspects of this pedigree come from Tiznow, by Cee's Tizzy (grandsires are In Reality and Lyphard) and out of Cee's Song, granddaughter of Seattle Slew. Outside of the 4 Northern Dancer instances, Secret House also has Lyphard once on either side in the 4th generation. Conformation: There are actually pictures of Secret House, albeit racing action shots. From what I can see, he seems well-conformed. Good, large hindquarters, solid shoulder, deep girth, and clean, not-too-long legs. Final Thoughts: Although his conformation is nice, Secret House's race record gives me no indication that he'll be able to last in today's race. 4) Midnight Pleasure (6-1) Jockey: Martin Garcia (same as last start) Race Record: One month ago, Midnight Pleasure came third in the 7f Del Mar Futurity (pp. 3/6), finishing close to 6 lengths after first place Klimt and over 2 lengths after second place Straight Fire. He stayed just off the pace for most of the race, but then didn't have it in him to ever progress beyond that. His first race, late July also at Del Mar, was 6f (pp. 5/9). He broke that maiden by 2 1/4 lengths ultimately, after a duel with second place finisher Dangerfield. Pedigree: Midnight Lute x Platinum Preferred, by Vindication. Midnight Lute is by Real Quiet, who can trace his direct sire line back to Fappiano and Mr. Prospector. Midnight Lute's dam, Candytuft's sire, Dehere is by Deputy Minister and a daughter of Secretariat. The real star of this pedigree is Vindication, however- son of Seattle Slew and Strawberry Reason, by Strawberry Road. Raise a Native once on either side in the 5th generation. Conformation: No pictures of Midnight Pleasure. Final Thoughts: Like Secret House, here's another example of a horse performing worse with distance increases. That said, the one thing he might have to redeem his potential performance is the fact that he's used to chasing after contenders Klimt and Straight Fire. This could possibly be an instance where he holds a grudge... But that's gotta be a hell of a lot of a grudge to supplant an otherwise seeming inability to last for a full 8.5 furlongs. 5) Straight Fire (9-5) Jockey: Flavien Prat (different from last start) Race Record: Straight Fire's last start was in the Del Mar Futurity, as mentioned above. He came in second place (pp. 2/6) after frontrunning but not hard enough to hold off a pretty quick closing Klimt. In early August, he won the maiden that Plum Dandy finished 8th out of 9th in (pp. 7/9), ultimately winning by 10 and a half lengths over the second place horse after staying in the lead the whole time. In mid-July, Straight Fire had his first attempt at breaking his maiden, coming in second place in a 5f Del Mar MSW (pp. 6/9). He had tried frontrunning, but was tripped up by the horse he had been dueling with. Pedigree: Dominus x Tricky Indy, by AP Indy. Dominus's sire is Smart Strike, son of Mr. Prospector and Classy n' Smart. Through his dam, Dominus also brings some Affirmed to the proverbial pedigree table. And then of course, we have AP Indy and all the greats he carries on Straight Fire's dam's side. The only inbreeding is Smartaire, 1979 Broodmare of the Year, who appears once on either side in the 5th generation. Conformation: This appears to be the best picture available of Straight Fire, from his maiden win at Del Mar in early August. From what I can see, he has a well-developed neck, pretty balanced hindquarters and shoulders, and good short, wide cannons and long forearms. Final Thoughts: Now, if there's going to be a grudge match today, I'd rather put my money on it being between Straight Fire and Klimt. This is a horse that clearly likes frontrunning, and I think we can definitely expect him to go straight after the lead from the start today. The real question is whether he'll be able to dig in against challengers like Klimt and Plum Dandy. 6) Klimt (6-5) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (same as last start) Race Record: With 4 starts, Klimt is the most raced contender in today's field. So far, the longest of those races was last month's 7f Del Mar Futurity (pp. 6/6). Before that, he won the 6.5f Best Pal Stakes, also at Del Mar (pp. 5/6) by stalking just off the frontrunner's pace. He broke his maiden on his second try, both at Santa Anita. The first attempt was 5f (pp. 6/10), which he came 4th place in; the second attempt was just half a furlong longer (pp. 1/11). In the first race, he never really progressed beyond 4th place, and in the second he was just off the pace, so the closing we saw in the Del Mar Futurity seems to be a newer thing. Pedigree: Quality Road x Inventive, by Dixie Union. There's a lot I can say about this pedigree, but seeing as it's less than 10 minutes to post, here's the link instead :) Conformation: No clear pictures, but a lot of cool Gustav Klint horse paintings. Final Thoughts: Trained by Bob Baffert, so that may be why his odds are so good for a horse that hasn't raced beyond 7f. He does have good breeding and good training, so he could have a shot, but these certainly aren't money-making odds. 7) Vibe (20-1) Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (same as last start) Race Record: Vibe's last start was the 1 mile MSW that Plum Dandy had won (pp. 8/8), which he came 3rd in. His previous attempt at breaking his maiden was one month prior, also at Del Mar, (pp. 2/9) which he came 6th in after never really putting up a serious challenge. Pedigree: Astrology x Oaks Lily, by Badge of Silver. Conformation: No pictures available. Final Thoughts: I actually think Vibe might be worth a small show bet- his record shows some improvement with the increase in distance, although I don't know that 8.5f would necessarily be enough for him at his current trajectory. The other explanation for the increase in performance could just be natural improvement over time, however. In sum, I think that Plum Dandy, Straight Fire, and Klimt are the best bets here, although I do also favor Vibe as a bit of a wild card bet. UPDATE: Wow, that was exciting! Secret House lost Gonzalez right out of the gate, and that seemed to be somewhat distracting to some of the horses. The big surprise here was Gormley, who won by over 2 lengths over the Del Mar Futurity double-headers, Klimt and Straight Fire. Although I did suspect he would do well with Shirreffs as his trainer. Unfortunately, due to the hasty nature of my bets, I didn't have time to add some extra funds to my Twinspires account, which means I didn't have the extra $2 to place that show bet on Gormley. Just yet another example of needing to be more prepared! With regards to the Awesome Again Stakes, I will be really surprised if California Chrome doesn't just have this in the bag. It's not an especially long race, and he's just been killing it lately. He's a refreshing reminder to me of the way racing used to be, when horses wouldn't just retire after a few successful races. His only serious challenger is going to be another big chestnut, Dortmund. Dortmund's last two starts have shown Chrome defeating him, so we could be looking at a grudge match.
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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