Wow, can you believe it's been a full YEAR since we were here? And by here, I mean both the Breeders' Cup and me posting a blog entry here. This year has a fair amount of repeat contenders too, which made handicapping this slightly easier. In order of their finish in last year's Classic: Arrogate (1st), War Story (8th), and Win the Space (DNF). Other familiar names include Mubtaahij, Gun Runner, Collected, and Gunnevera. Can Arrogate pull it off again? We'll find out at post tonight (about 8:30pm EST); more detailed analysis after the jump! In order of post position: 1 - ArrogateMorning Line: 2-1 First Impressions: Last year's superstar, but somewhat disappointing in his last 2 starts at Del Mar, including a 4th place finish in the San Diego Handicap and 2nd in the Pacific Classic. However, he's on the rail tonight, which he has historically seemed to prefer. Jockey: Mike Smith Race Record: In 10 starts to date, Arrogate has been in the money 9 times, winning 7. His speed factor (as calculated by Equibase) is currently 126, tied with Collected. But as mentioned previously, his recent performances have been kind of lackluster, and he's up against a field who will try and take this last victory from him. The Pacific Classic (10f) was his last start and should have been an easy win, but Collected was able to stave him off the whole time. San Diego shouldn't have been that hard either, but it was 1 1/16th mile and Arrogate is a stalker/closer, so it's possible that he just didn't have enough time to make his move. Still though, this is a horse with a 126 speed factor. Pedigree: Unbridleds Song x Bubbler, by Distorted Humor. This is a pretty classic high-profile TB pedigree. Double Mr. Prospector and In Reality on both sides, with double Northern Dancer on the dam's side. Unbridleds Song's damsire is Caro, and Bubbler's damsire is Deputy Minister. Conformation: Super fit, great joints, and short cannons/long forearms. Hindquarters nice and big, with girth appropriately deep. Shoulder good and slopey. Pasterns appear medium with a moderate slope. Overall: Tonight could very well end up being a grudge match between Arrogate and Collected. As much as I'm tempted to demote Arrogate to place/show as opposed to W/P/S, Arrogate is still an incredible horse in great shape. 2 - War DecreeMorning Line: 30-1 First Impressions: Born in KY but essentially an Irish import... Not much info. Jockey: Seamus Heffernan Race Record: Seems like he last won something called the Koffy stakes at Dundalk at the end of September, but there isn't really much else that stands out. Pedigree: War Front x Royal Decree, by Street Cry. Pretty standard, with Mr. P once on either side, and with a decent amount of international influence from Ireland, France, and GB. Shares some similarities with Zenyatta's pedigree due to Street Cry. Conformation: Decent looking legs, although a little tied in beneath the knees. Hindquarters look strong, but possibly a little lacking, and neck on the shorter side. Pasterns look a little short also. Overall: This horse could be a huge wild card, but what I can see of his record on Equibase shows only 6 lifetime starts and only 3 wins spread out over those 2 years. It seems more likely that he'll be a little out of his element here. 3 - Win the SpaceMorning Line: 30-1 First Impressions: A well-deserved long-shot (as in he definitely deserves the label of long-shot) who seems to have gotten to the race by way of a very lucky show in a recent race. Jockey: Joe Talamo Race Record: A pretty long career, with 17 starts. However, it took him 6 tries to break his maiden. When he eventually did, it was a 1 mile turf race at Del Mar (pp. 2/11). ...If you thought I was about to make a case for Win the Space as a wild card long-shot, sit back down. The last time he won was May...2016. He came third place in last year's Awesome Again stakes, which in turn brought him to last year's Breeders' Cup Classic where he flopped and didn't finish. It wasn't his first DNF- he didn't finish that year's Pacific Classic a few months earlier too. Win the Space didn't return to the track until this August, in an unlisted (on Equibase) stakes race at Del Mar that he came 5th in. Then he pulled the same trick as he had in 2016 and showed in this year's Awesome Again Stakes (1 1/8th mile). All these words just to say: no. If the best he can do is show in a race that was 1/8th shorter than tonight's race, then this one is out. As such, I'm not going to address the remaining factors. 4 - War StoryMorning Line: 30-1 First Impressions: Another long-shot. War Story's record in shallower fields than this one has been middling at best. Jockey: Jose Ortiz Race Record: To save time, I'm not going to go over every detail of his last few races except to say that he's going to be in too deep today. Overall: Pass. 5 - Gun RunnerMorning Line: 9-5 First Impressions: Starting tonight with a 3-race win streak, including the Woodward and Whitney at Saratoga. Jockey: Florent Geroux Race Record: Gun Runner is a front runner who doesn't mind having to come from the middle post positions to get where he needs to go. In his recent Whitney win, he took the gold over Keen Ice by over 5 lengths. His overall record this year is looking pretty good. Pedigree: Candy Ride x Quiet Giant, by Giants Causeway. Giants Causeway is a son of Storm Cat, so he's got that stamina and endurance on his dam's side, which I always like to see. Candy Ride as a sire gives some nice speed, which we do see reflected in Gun Runner's SF of 131 (!!). In addition to double Northern Dancer, the other multiple instances in his pedigree come from old names like Lyphard and Blushing Groom. Conformation: To be brief, strong with decent bone. Great neck and good hooves. Overall: He's a win/place/show, but I'll put more on place/show than win. 6 - MubtaahijMorning Line: 12-1 First Impressions: Had been kind of disappointing but won in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita after Baffert ran him with blinders. Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Race Record: Also running in the 6th post position, Mubtaahij won the Awesome Again by closing. However, as mentioned above, this is a 1 1/8th mile race. His other races weren't super impressive. Again, I'm going to skip the rest and call this a pass. 7 - Churchill (IRE)Morning Line: 15-1 First Impressions: Irish import with limited available racing history, but Storm Cat is damsire. Jockey: Ryan Moore Race Record: His last race was 10/21 in England, and he came 3rd. Otherwise, he hasn't done great. There's probably a good chance that he may not have fully acclimated to the conditions here, but based on the fact that he showed there, is coming from turf, and his Storm Cat ancestry, I'll do a small show bet. 8 - West CoastMorning Line: 6-1 First Impressions: Chances actually look pretty good based on previous results of 6 wins in 8 starts with 2 places, but he might be a little out of his element with other elites. Jockey: Javier Castellano Race Record: A late bloomer 3 year old whose first start was less than a year ago. And yet, he's done pretty well. He's shown he's capable of both closing and front running, and won the Travers by over 3 lengths, defeating fellow contender Gunnevera. However, he's never raced at Del Mar and the Travers seems to be the one time he's even touched talent. Overall: Show bet 9 - GunneveraMorning Line: 30-1 First Impressions: Seems to have been improving since 7th place finish in the Derby, with most recently 2nd place in the Travers. Still, he might be outgunned here overall. Jockey: Edgard Zayas Overall: Considering that I'm only going to put a show bet on Travers fellow West Coast, I'm going to pass on Gunnevera tonight. 10 - PavelMorning Line: 20-1 First Impressions: Only 4 starts - won Smarty Jones but came 3rd in Jockey Club Gold Cup a few weeks ago. Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Overall: After reviewing his minimal race record, I'm not seeing anything to convince me to take a risk on this guy. I think he has long-term potential (look at those hindquarters!) but he came third in the Gold Cup with probably less weight than he'll have today, and against horses that didn't quite make the cut for tonight's race. 11 - CollectedMorning Line: 6-1 First Impressions: Front runner who managed to stave off Arrogate's charge in the Pacific Classic by half a length to take the win- his first Grade I. He is also undefeated in 2017. Looks promising for win/place/show. Jockey: Martin Garcia Race Record: I had been following Collected when I was tabulating for this year's Derby- he had almost enough points, but not quite enough. But it was evident that given more time, he was finding his own. He did end up racing in the Preakness and doing pretty bad (10th place), but since then he's been undefeated in his last 4 starts. He did have a bit of an advantage in the Pacific Classic in that he was post position 2, and rode the rail- this definitely seems to be his preference. Tonight's post position will present more of a challenge, and I think considering that he doesn't have quite the same record as Arrogate, he might be at too much of a disadvantage. Pedigree: City Zip x Helena Bay, by Johannesburg. Johannesburg can trace his sire's line back to Storm Cat, his grandsire. That said, Secretariat isn't even visible in this pedigree. City Zip is a grandsire of Mr. P. Conformation: Evenly built- legs and body seem to be equally as deep. Cannons are nice and short, with fairly long forearms. Great hindquarters. Overall: I'm really curious as to whether Garcia will try and get Collected toward the rail, or just run him straight out and try and get up with the front running pack that will develop. I think he maybe could pull off the win, but I also think the post position does present a valid issue. I'll do a place show, and put him in a trifecta. Which brings us to...
So we know that Arrogate likes to be up front, but not the first. He likes to stalk just off the hot pace and then charge. Gun Runner and West Coast seem like they'll be our two big front runners here, with Collected in the mix if he can get there in time. Everyone else will probably form the pack, with Churchill maybe on the outside poised to close. My guess is that Mike Smith will keep Arrogate well in hand, just a few lengths behind Gun Runner and whoever else is up there with him. I think it's likely that West Coast will eventually fade down the stretch; the primary duel will probably be with Gun Runner and Arrogate, again, possibly with Collected. We do know from last year's Breeders' Cup Classic that Arrogate can certainly handle a duel. BUT this is a different track: Del Mar's stretch is shorter than Santa Anita's by a full 70 feet. Will Arrogate have enough space to do his run? Will Gun Runner just cruise to a finish then? I guess we'll find out.
I alluded above that I'm toying with trifectas and exactas again. I came out strongly in the black when I played the Kentucky Derby this year (unpublished charts and such- sorry!), so I do have the money in my Twinspires account. I'll go for Arrogate-Gun Runner-West Coast, Arrogate-Gun Runner-Collected, Arrogate-Collected-Gun Runner, Gun Runner-Arrogate-West Coast, and Gun Runner-Arrogate-Collected. In addition to the general individual bets I mentioned above. Who are you betting on in the next 15 minutes before post? ~Gallant Vixen
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About Gallant VixenNew lawyer with a degree in equine studies and a penchant for handicapping. Archives
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